Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore... Except that we are.
We will be forecasting for Wichita for four weeks (8 Apr - 4 May). The tournament schedule is a little different-- forecasts are due by 00 UTC on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Note that you do not forecast on Wednesday and you do forecast on Friday. Wednesdays are when they determine who moves onto the next round, bracket-style. The full rules are found here.
Wichita, KS (KICT, Wichita Mid-Continent Airport) is located in south-central Kansas. The Arkansas River is the largest water body nearby so besides that, there is really nothing geographically significant. Wichita is flat. Stalking the airport we see that it is located to the southwest of the city center.
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I'm pretty sure this city won the voting because it would be a likely center of action for any severe weather activity during the forecast period. I'm sure the atmosphere won't disappoint! No seriously, I'm sure the atmosphere won't disappoint and a first quick look for you should be what the SPC is saying for the coming days and you'll be sure, too!
Springtime in the Plains is the severe weather season. There are three ingredients for convection: moisture, instability, and lift. The moisture is usually present from strong southerly advection off of the Gulf of Mexico and can be seen by paying attention to dew point values from surface observations, or plots of mixing ratio, or any other low-level moisture fields. The instability usually comes from the solar heating of the surface, hence why most severe convection tends to occur in the afternoon and evening hours. Current and forecast soundings for ICT can help deduce where the most instability is. You can have all of the instability in the world, but if there is no lifting mechanism then the worst threat is air mass thunderstorms. The lifting mechanism is a synoptic-scale system whose low center, warm front, and cold front (and dry line if it forms-- pay attention to the dew point gradient being much larger than the temperature gradient) can provide the lift needed to generate severe convection.
So what specialized tools are available? Luckily, a lot! I would first go to the experts themselves at the Storm Prediction Center to see what's up. To get a handle on the current conditions, I would look through a few fields by means of a mesoanalysis. After that, I would use the SREF to look at forecast moisture (2m dew point), instability (CAPE: surface-based and most unstable), and lift (frontogenesis). Isolating precipitation amounts, I would look to a high-resolution WRF run that hopefully will be run out far enough to make an accurate forecast. But that's what I would do and I didn't make the tourney ;-).
Large-scale Pattern:
A look at forecast 500-hPa heights according to the GFS shows a lee trough east of the Rocky Mountains which should maintain a low pressure system that may spark some severe weather for KICT until Wednesday. That moves through and weak ridging or more zonal flow should occur through the end of the week. Another system may be present for the late weekend into early next week. Special attention should be given to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecasts of the general pattern and QPF and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts of any severe activity.
Tips/Comments for Wichita (KICT):
- Analyze all ingredients for convection, starting with the SPC products and tools.
- Look at more than one deterministic model, especially side-by-side comparisons, toggling between models (Mode: Clickable Map), or even better- ensembles (SREF/GEFS Plumes, SREF Maps, GEFS Maps).
- WxChallenge's wind forecast is for sustained, not gusts. Instead of just looking at plan-view maps at or near the surface, try taking a look at forecast soundings. The measured wind speed is a 2-minute average. Gusts often occur because with heavy precip, higher momentum air can be brought down to the surface, i.e. winds reach the surface via more than just mixing, but unless they persist for about 2-minutes they won't verify. So I don't think a tornado's fury would count for the wind speed.
- Really read the NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). Those forecasters are experts in the intricacies of forecasting for Wichita.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:
- Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future.
- Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Wichita.
- Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KICT.
- Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics). Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times.
- Read the Wichita, KS WFO forecast discussion for KICT.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):
- Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover.
- Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):
- NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
- Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):
- Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
- What does the WPC (formerly known as HPC) show?
- Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (if no local option then try SPC's SREF page))
- Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.
Congratulations, again, to BillyS and 4castr for getting into the tournament! Congratulations to the rest of you for getting through a whole academic year of forecasting for all over the United States! I hope that you all learned a lot or at least gained a greater appreciation for forecasting for places other than SBU. However, it's true that there's no place like home *clicks heels.* If you ever have any questions about forecasting, the WxChallenge, or just want to talk about weather-- feel free to e-mail me, comment on this post, or stop by my office. You guys rock and hopefully you'll forecast next year, too! Go Team SBU!!!
