tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-41143835777342945312024-03-12T21:59:56.389-07:00SBU's WxChallenge BlogSarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-13533940889978599632014-04-06T18:33:00.003-07:002014-04-06T18:33:56.969-07:00*Bonus Forecast City* Springfield, MO (KSGF)Congratulations on completing your participation in the WxChallenge for the 2013-2014 academic year! The WxChallenge switches gears to a tournament starting Monday, 7 April. Everyone is invited to participate as a bonus forecast city to further stretch your point-forecasting muscles, however unfortunately no forecaster from SBU was able to score well enough nationally to compete in the tournament. Oh well, better luck next year! I would still encourage you to continue to submit your forecasts because wouldn't it be funny if you ended up scoring better than the person who won?!<br />
<br />
We will be forecasting for Springfield, Missouri (KSGF) for <i><b>four </b></i>weeks (7 Apr - 3 May). The tournament schedule is a little different-- forecasts are due by 00 UTC on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Note that you <i><b>do not</b></i><b> </b>forecast on Wednesday and you <i><b>do </b></i>forecast on Friday. Wednesdays are when they determine who moves onto the next round, bracket-style. The full rules are found <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
<br />
Why Springfield? It's severe weather season in the Plains so that should make for some interesting forecasting challenges. Springfield is located in southwestern Missouri close to the OK, KS and AK borders. Time to stalk the airport!<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="300" src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d52469.71472917235!2d-93.3971479999998!3d37.23838202212729!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x87cf60288f8f530f%3A0xe8886265e2ecd793!2sSpringfield-Branson+National+Airport!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1396832244674" style="border: 0;" width="400"></iframe>
<br />
KSGF is Springfield-Branson National Airport and is located to the northwest of the city center. There's actually a little bit of topography in the state of Missouri known as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozarks" target="_blank">Ozarks</a>. The highest peaks (< 3000 ft / 800 m) are located to the south of KSGF in Arkansas. The WMO ID is <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KSGF" target="_blank">72440</a>. I would always check in with the expert forecasters for that location, those at the <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/" target="_blank">NWS Springfield WFO</a>.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_0oCYbDVkfo/U0H5tlgqRSI/AAAAAAAAAuI/x1LZ9DIABLU/s1600/729px-OzarkRelief.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_0oCYbDVkfo/U0H5tlgqRSI/AAAAAAAAAuI/x1LZ9DIABLU/s1600/729px-OzarkRelief.jpg" height="263" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ozarks; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozarks" target="_blank">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Given the time of year and the geography of the area, I would look at higher-resolution models in addition to other operational products (NAM, GFS) such as the following:<div>
<ul>
<li>Rapid Refresh (RAP)</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rucmeteograms/images/724400.meteogram.gif" target="_blank">Forecast meteogram found here</a>. </li>
<li><a href="http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/soundings/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rap_jet" target="_blank">Forecast soundings found here</a>.</li>
</ul>
<li>Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140406&RT=15&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=SGF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap" target="_blank">Forecast meteogram (plumes) found here</a>.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Large-Scale Pattern:</b></span></span><br />A trough currently over the Central U.S. should slide eastward and heights should build behind it bringing lower chances for precipitation during the first few forecasts for Springfield according to the <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">12Z GFS initialized 6 April</a>. <br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b> </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;"></span></span></span><ul style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">radar</a> (pretty good <a href="https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/Images/WSR-88DCONUSCoverage1000.jpg" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">radar coverage</a> in ND!), <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">here</a>, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Springfield.</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KSGF.</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Ensembles are your friend. <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastergefs.php?plot=4" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS</a>. Here's a <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">winter-specific SREF page</a> just for fun. </span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SGF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Springfield, MO WFO forecast discussion</a> for info on KSGF. These are the experts for that location, after all! </span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</span></li>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</span></a></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</span></a></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php </a> </span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The SBU-WRF run by Professor Colle's research group has Springfield in their 36-km domain and can be found here:</span></li>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: inherit;">http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/</span></a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;"> </span></span></span><ul style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, snow cover, and fog. <a href="http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?year=2014&month=3&day=23&units=e&region=Upper_Midwest" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Is there snow cover? Gosh, I hope not but check out here!</a></span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;"> </span></span></span><ul style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;"> </span></span></span><ul style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">WRF</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">hi-res NAM</a>) or <a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)</a></span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallsref.html" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">SREF</a> or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">here</a>. And for a winter-weather specific <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" style="color: #351c75; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">SREF page then check this out</a>.)</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;">Be sure to </span><a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2014/01/weather-challenge-spring-2014.html" style="background-color: white; color: #351c75; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;"> for a </span><i style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;">long </i><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;">list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's </span><a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" style="background-color: white; color: #351c75; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;">. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!</span><br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><br style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;" /><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18.479999542236328px;">Thank you for your participation in the 2013-2014 WxChallenge Forecasting Competition! As always, go Team SBU!</span></span></div>
Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-80534512308929003402014-03-23T20:23:00.000-07:002014-03-23T20:25:57.779-07:00City #10: Grand Forks, ND (KGFK) & The Final City of the Year!Congratulations on making it to the end of the WxChallenge 2013-14 year! The final standard forecast city of the challenge is the one that we all had the chance to vote on and the winner is <b>Grand Forks, ND (KGFK)</b>! I'm biased and think that's a random location and would much prefer to forecast for an adorable city on the coast of Maine or something like that but Grand Forks will have to do. If you advance into the tournament (are in the top 64 of all forecasters at all levels who are full-year participants) then you have one last city after KGFK, otherwise everyone can forecast for the tournament city as a low-pressure bonus city just for fun. We will be forecasting for Grand Forks, ND from 24 March - 3 April for the 24-h period from 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM CDT). Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC (8 PM EDT).<br />
<br />
Grand Forks, ND (KGFK) is in northeastern North Dakota right near the border of Minnesota. The city is found along the Red River (where it forks from the Red Lake River, and it forks grandly at that) and is forever remembered for the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Red_River_Flood" target="_blank">1997 Red River Flood</a> that thankfully wasn't responsible for any fatalities but was responsible for about $3.5 billion in damage. There's no topography to speak of so that saves some typing. Let's just jump straight to stalking the airport.<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="300" src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m14!1m8!1m3!1d35576.90699576359!2d-97.16889132906253!3d47.94714313387012!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x52c429ed2fc664a1%3A0x78477f99d79b62db!2sGrand+Forks+International+Airport!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1395590721301" style="border: 0;" width="400"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
The airport is Grand Forks International Airport and is located to the west of the city center and the Red River seemingly surrounded by farm fields. The <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KGFK" target="_blank">WMO ID is 72757</a>. The <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=fgf" target="_blank">average high temperature for March - April</a> can vary from 30's - 50's F and the average low temperature is in the 30's - 40's F but just looking at the <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/850temp_stdanom/850temp_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">850-hPa temperature standardized anomaly forecast from the GFS</a> shows that Grand Forks will be dealing with an air mass that is -2 sigma colder than normal. After familiarizing oneself with observations (satellite, surface obs, etc.) it would be a good idea to head over to see what the experts are saying at the <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/" target="_blank">Grand Forks NWS WFO</a>.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Large-Scale Pattern:</b></span><br />
<br />
The pattern looks to be amplified early in the period but then flattening out to become more zonal during our first week of forecasting for GFK according to the <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=18&fhour=00&parameter=RELV&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">GFS 500-hPa geopotential height forecast</a>. The main story early on will be how cold it will get with much lower than average temperatures expected. A few short waves passing either to the north or south of GFK may provide some scattered snow showers but there are no strong, organized systems on the horizon for our first week.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span>
</span>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a> (pretty good <a href="https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/Images/WSR-88DCONUSCoverage1000.jpg" target="_blank">radar coverage</a> in ND!), <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>,
etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the
future. </li>
<li>Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Grand Forks.</li>
<li>Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KGFK.</li>
<li>How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></li>
<li>Ensembles are your friend. <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastergefs.php?plot=4" target="_blank">Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS</a>. Here's a <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" target="_blank">winter-specific SREF page</a> just for fun. </li>
<li>Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </li>
<li>Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Grand Forks, ND WFO forecast discussion</a>
for info on KGFK. These are the experts for
that location, after all! </li>
<li>Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ewxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php </a> </li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The SBU-WRF run by Professor Colle's research group has Grand Forks in their
36-km domain and can be
found here:</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/" target="_blank">http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, snow cover, and fog. <a href="http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?year=2014&month=3&day=23&units=e&region=Upper_Midwest" target="_blank">Is there snow cover? Check out here!</a></li>
<li>Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</li>
<li>Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</li>
<li>Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Efxg1/ewallhires.html" target="_blank">hi-res NAM</a>) or <a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)</a></li>
<li>What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </li>
<li>Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </li>
<li>Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>. And for a winter-weather specific <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" target="_blank">SREF page then check this out</a>.)</li>
<li>Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.
Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the
forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use
the liquid equivalent.</li>
</ul>
<br />
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2014/01/weather-challenge-spring-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!<br />
<br />
Forget the spoons. Forget the knives. Grab your grandest forks for this point-forecast! Best of luck with forecasting for KGFK and let's go Team SBU!Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-46143235213762459512014-03-10T06:59:00.002-07:002014-03-10T06:59:32.378-07:00City #9: Redding, CA (KRDD)Say good-bye to the East Coast since we are now going to be moving on to City #9 of the year which is <b>Redding, California (KRDD)</b>. Does anyone know where Redding, CA is? I sure don't because I have only been in California for half of a day at Death Valley National Park (#sheltered Long Islander). All the more reason to get aquainted with KRDD with this blog post! Anyway, we will be forecasting for Redding from 10-20 March for the 24-h period from 06-06 UTC which is 11-11 PM PDT and the forecasts are still due by 00 UTC which is now <i><b>8 PM EDT</b></i>!!! Hopefully you noticed that the clocks changed (Spring ahead) otherwise you may have been having a rough week with showing up late to classes. <br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GBpLwt9r69A/UxjgaQzUNgI/AAAAAAAAAsA/UwnKrQuY1s8/s1600/northern_california.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GBpLwt9r69A/UxjgaQzUNgI/AAAAAAAAAsA/UwnKrQuY1s8/s1600/northern_california.png" height="287" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/285/images/CA-3154_figure_01_print.png" target="_blank">Source</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Redding, CA is located in north-central California (NORCAL) on the northern periphery of the Sacramento Valley essentially surrounded by mountains except to its south. The Klamath Mountains are to its northwest and the Cascades are to its east and northeast. With all that terrain and with the Pacific Ocean so close by, I'd start out every forecast by checking out the <a href="http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/west/westwvflash.html" target="_blank">latest loop of water vapor imagery</a> to pick out potential moisture plumes and systems off the coast. (<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?sat_500_full+12" target="_blank">Check out this loop for a 500 mb analysis overlaid on satellite.</a> Or <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?fronts_ir+/48h/" target="_blank">this one with NCEP-analyzed surface fronts!</a>) For a focused look at the forecast moisture transport, <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/~j_cordeira/Models/ens/ivt/IVTprob.html" target="_blank">check out this link for integrated water vapor transport from the GEFS</a> (global ensemble forecast system) for out to 384 forecast hours. Time to stalk the airport!<br />
<br />
KRDD is Redding Municipal Airport and is located to the southeast of the city center. It has a WMO ID of <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KRDD" target="_blank">72592</a> and an elevation of 153 m which is actually pretty low considering all of the surrounding terrain and that parts of the outskirts of Redding rise to about 800 m. The representative <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/" target="_blank">NWS WFO is Sacramento, CA</a> and after looking at some satellite imagery I'd totally read up on what these expert forecasting for NORCAL have to say<a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSTO&wfo=STO" target="_blank"> in their area forecast discussion (AFD)</a>. <br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="450" src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d388402.2777153293!2d-122.32250031997054!3d40.48869639428297!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x54d2ea9892190b9d%3A0x4c1432a6197156d0!2sRedding+Municipal+Airport!5e0!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1394139954349" style="border: 0;" width="600"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Given that we are forecasting for a site entrenched in terrain on the West Coast of the United States, I think it would be a good idea to review the concept of orographic precipitation. We all know that if air is sufficiently moist and is lifted that it reaches a point in which the air becomes saturated and the water vapor condenses into cloud. If that parcel keeps rising then some of that water can precipitate out. That's the simple idea about stable orographic flow over terrain that can cause precipitation on its windward slopes. The situation can be a bit more complex when you have preexisting synoptic features translating across areas of terrain; then you can have orographically-<i>enhanced</i> precipitation. And don't be fooled if the moisture is coming directly from the west and Redding lies within the shadow of the Coastal Mountains-- it may not be safe from precipitation for many reasons including that the Cascades are higher (can wring out more moisture) and perturbed flow can develop over the Coastal Mountains that can actually form a wave-like appearance and cause air to lift downstream and produce precipitation. It's a little bit long and you'll have to zoom-in, but a great guide to forecasting out west for these types of situations was put out by the Warning Decision Training Branch of NOAA and <a href="http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/documents/color_PDFs/IC56.pdf" target="_blank">a pdf going through a whole bunch of orographic precip. goodies is found here</a>. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Summarizing Thoughts & Large-Scale Pattern:</b></span><br />
<br />
The pattern looks to be drying out just as we start to forecast for RDD. According to the 500 hPa heights of the GFS, a trough (that we are all very much paying attention to for its potential role in weather for us on the East Coast!) is moving out of the area and a ridge builds in its wake that remains and builds throughout our first full week of forecasting for Redding. Therefore, the forecast challenges for our first week of forecasting will be catching the temperature trends and getting those winds right. There may be some moisture to play with next week, but we'll have to wait and see.<br />
<br />
In general-- I'd focus my particular attention to the large-scale synoptic pattern, with land falling mature cyclones and their associated moisture plumes being the most important thing to watch out for. I'd use the available hi-resolution models to get a better feel for wind patterns and diurnal temperature variations (see sections below for links). <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span>
</span>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Check out the current weather first via <i><b><a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a></b></i>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a> (beware of <a href="https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/Images/WSR-88DCONUSCoverage1000.jpg" target="_blank">beam blockage</a> out west!), <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>,
etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the
future. </li>
<li>Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Redding.</li>
<ul>
<li>For forecasting for Redding, I'd look hemispherically or look at the Pacific specifically which can be done at the following links (Note: can only be done with global models for obvious reasons, i.e. domain boundaries):</li>
<ul>
<li> GFS: <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/npac.html">http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/npac.html</a></li>
<li> GFS: <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?h500+/-168//">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?h500+/-168//</a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KRDD.</li>
<li>How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></li>
<li>Ensembles are your friend. <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastergefs.php?plot=4" target="_blank">Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS</a>. Here's a <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" target="_blank">winter-specific SREF page</a> just for fun. </li>
<li>Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </li>
<li>Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=STO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Sacramento, CA WFO forecast discussion</a>
for info on KRDD. These are the experts for
that location, after all! </li>
<li>Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ewxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php </a> </li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The GFS-WRF run by the University of Washington has Redding in their
36-km domain and a list of all of the types of qpf products can be
found here:</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html </a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, snow cover, and fog. </li>
<li>Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KRDD!</li>
<li>Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</li>
<li>The terrain around KRDD makes it a little complex to associate a specific wind direction with a specific temperature effect. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</li>
<li>Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Efxg1/ewallhires.html" target="_blank">hi-res NAM</a>) or <a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)</a></li>
<ul>
<li>The GFS-WRF run by the University of Washington has Redding in their 36-km domain and a list of all of the types of qpf products can be found here:</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html </a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<li>What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </li>
<li>Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </li>
<li>Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>. And for a winter-weather specific <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" target="_blank">SREF page then check this out</a>.)</li>
<li>Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.
Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the
forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use
the liquid equivalent.</li>
</ul>
<br />
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2014/01/weather-challenge-spring-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!<br />
<br />
I don't know much about Redding except that a former boy band singer-turned solo artist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Parker_Angel" target="_blank">Ashley Parker Angel</a> of O-Town fame was born there. If you don't know who he is then A) I'm really old and B) you're better off.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/PuSm849Eep8" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
<br />
I hope you're excited to forecast for this very different area of the country! <b>Go Team SBU!</b>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-12398017058108472782014-02-23T19:04:00.002-08:002014-02-23T19:08:45.567-08:00City #8: Baltimore, MD (KBWI) Welcome back to forecasting for the CONUS again in the WxChallenge! I hope you enjoyed your foray into Alaskan forecasting and are happy to be back to forecasting for more recognizable latitudes. The next forecast city for the Spring semester is <b>Baltimore, MD (KBWI)</b>. We will be forecasting for
the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM EST) from 24 February - 6 March.<br />
<br />
Baltimore is located near the northern edge of the Chesapeake Bay in north-central Maryland. It is a major port city because of its location on the bay but is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9b/Chesapeakewatershedmap.png" target="_blank">Delmarva Peninsula</a> which is very flat so doesn't act to impede air masses coming off the Atlantic given a strong enough easterly wind. The city varies in elevation from sea level in the inner harbor to about 150 m in the northwest suburbs, with the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains a good 80 km away to the northwest of the city. Time to stalk the airport!<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="450" src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d221225.41817029804!2d-76.82845289834502!3d39.219691892811596!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x89b7e2fcbbc2e00b%3A0x150cfa971740!2sBaltimore%2FWashington+International+Thurgood+Marshall+Airport!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1393013860809" style="border: 0;" width="600"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
KBWI is located southwest of the city center a little less than 10 km from the Chesapeake Bay. KBWI's WMO ID is <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KBWI" target="_blank">72406</a>.
Be sure to check
in with the local NWS WFO which is the <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/" target="_blank">Sterling, VA Office</a>. A convenient quality of KBWI is that it is located in our timezone (EST) which minimizes conversions for us!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b>
</span><br />
The <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast upper-level pattern</a>
according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting shows the growing amplitude of the longwave upper-level trough throughout the entire week with a few embedded shortwaves that could force some disturbances, especially the coastal development expected for Wednesday. The forecast temperatures should be well below normal given the cold air mass that is associated with that deep trough and has been highlighted by <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif" target="_blank">CPC's 6-10 day outlook</a>. The outlook also calls for <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif" target="_blank">above average precipitation</a> for around BWI and the entire East Coast because of the location of the trough just upstream of a semi-permanent baroclinic zone (continental air vs. Gulf Stream) that is perfect for activating the Atlantic storm track like we've seen plenty of evidence of this winter. To summarize, the large-scale pattern looks pretty good for cold and precipitation as I think we'll see as we start forecasting.<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>,
etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the
future. </li>
<li>Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Baltimore. </li>
<li>Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KBWI.</li>
<li>How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></li>
<li>Ensembles are your friend. <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastergefs.php?plot=4" target="_blank">Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS</a>. Here's a <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" target="_blank">winter-specific SREF page</a> just for fun. </li>
<li>Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </li>
<li>Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off" target="_blank">Sterling, VA WFO forecast discussion</a>
for info on BWI. These are the experts for
that location, after all! </li>
<li>Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ewxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php </a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. Should there be snow-cover then temperatures can potentially be a bit colder due to snow's reflective properties and low heat capacity.</li>
<li>Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KBWI!</li>
<li>Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</li>
<li>An easterly wind direction should make BWI temperatures warmer given the proximity to the coast. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</li>
<li>Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Efxg1/ewallhires.html" target="_blank">hi-res NAM</a>) or <a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)</a></li>
<ul>
<li>This forecast city is actually in our model domains for the <a href="http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/index.html" target="_blank">SBU-WRF</a> that is run twice daily. We don't have any time-series or soundings for BWI because we are narcissistic and centralizing it on Long Island but the cross section from B-B' should capture very near to BWI at the southwestern endpoint. </li>
</ul>
<li>What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </li>
<li>Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </li>
<li>Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>. And for a winter-weather specific <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/" target="_blank">SREF page then check this out</a>.)</li>
<li>Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.
Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the
forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use
the liquid equivalent.</li>
</ul>
<br />
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2014/01/weather-challenge-spring-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!<br />
<br />
While you peruse the atmospheric data, be sure to play the Star Spangled Banner which was written in Baltimore by Francis Scott Key (see video below). It should be cool forecasting for BWI for the next couple weeks (pun intended)! Brrrr, best of luck and go Team SBU!!!<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/yH6lpFOTxpk" width="560"></iframe> Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-21149801731805768472014-02-09T18:55:00.000-08:002014-02-09T18:55:48.639-08:00City #7: Fairbanks, AK (PAFA)<span style="font-size: small;">We are done forecasting for Atlanta and now focus our attention outside of the Continental United States (CONUS) for the first time since 2011! The second forecast city for the Spring semester and the seventh forecast city this year is <b>Fairbanks, AK (PAFA)</b>. We will be forecasting for
the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (9 PM - 9 PM AKST) from 10 February - 20 February. Two things to note here is that the airport code begins with a "P" not a "K" because it is located near the Pacific Ocean and Alaska has its own time zone and is 4 hours behind us.</span><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AQkHe2QVGOI/UvPrUrIPIbI/AAAAAAAAAn0/eY8kplm-dl4/s1600/akcolor.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AQkHe2QVGOI/UvPrUrIPIbI/AAAAAAAAAn0/eY8kplm-dl4/s1600/akcolor.gif" height="320" width="293" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/namerica/usstates/lgcolor/akcolor.htm" target="_blank">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: small;">Fairbanks, Alaska is found in central Alaska in the Tanana Valley. It is surrounded by various mountain ranges as you can see in the image to the right and is just 190 km from the Arctic Circle. It's well removed from <a href="http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/deadliest-catch" target="_blank">The Deadliest Catch</a> territory but perhaps it's near where one could strike it rich with some <a href="http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/gold-rush" target="_blank">gold mining</a>! That's enough publicity for The Discovery Channel; time to stalk the airport!</span><br />
<br />
PAFA is Fairbanks International Airport and is located to the west of the city center along the Tanana River. PAFA's WMO ID is <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/PAFA" target="_blank">70261</a>. The closest topography is the Alaska Range to the south and the White Mountains to the Northeast . Be sure to check
in with the local NWS WFO which is the <a href="http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Fairbanks, AK office</a>. They are sort of their own little entity up there, with three Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Alaska (Juneau, Fairbanks and Anchorage) with a NWS region all to themselves-- <a href="http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wxoffices.php" target="_blank">Alaska Region Headquarters</a>. Some of their website displays are a little bit different than what we are used to here within the Eastern Region of the NWS but they're chock full of information if you find their <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=AFG&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">forecast discussion</a> to be a bit on the short side.<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=pafa+fairbanks&aq=&sll=39.957632,-75.163522&sspn=0.008635,0.01869&vpsrc=6&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=&ll=64.817794,-147.867619&spn=0.006295,0.006295&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=pafa+fairbanks&aq=&sll=39.957632,-75.163522&sspn=0.008635,0.01869&vpsrc=6&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=&ll=64.817794,-147.867619&spn=0.006295,0.006295&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<br />
<br />
Forecasting for Alaska can be a bit tricky because it is outside of the CONUS and therefore experiencing a slightly different pattern, being just upstream. It may help to look at Northern Hemispheric analysis and forecast products to be able to get a sense of the more large-scale synoptic setup. <b>Some <i>Alaska-specific</i> links are as follows:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>NCEP's <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=POLAR#" target="_blank">Northern Hemispheric loop from GFS</a> </li>
<li>NCEP's <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GEFS-MNSPRD&area=POLAR#" target="_blank">Ensemble Mean & Spread of GEFS (GFS Ensemble)</a></li>
<li>NCEP/CMC's <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAEFS&area=POLAR#" target="_blank">North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFs, Joint CMC-GFS Ensemble)</a></li>
<li>NCEP's <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM-HIRES&area=ALASKA#" target="_blank">Alaska-only Hi-res NAM</a></li>
<li>NCEP's <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=HRW-NMM-AK&area=ALASKA#" target="_blank">Alaska-only NMM-Core WRF</a></li>
<li>NCEP's <a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=HRW-ARW-AK&area=ALASKA" target="_blank">Alaska-only ARW-Core WRF</a> </li>
</ul>
The CPC 8-10 day outlook for temperatures and precipitation is looking to be below normal for both temperatures and precipitation. "Normal" temperatures for the month of February are 10F/-12F so we'll see how many negative numbers we have to input! Just looking at one deterministic model shows that where a ridge had been prevalent over AK, now a <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">trough digs down</a> during our first week of forecasting. <br />
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a> (for Alaska option or <a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/flash-wv.html" target="_blank">click here for NH composite</a>), <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/alaska.php" target="_blank">radar</a> (can't see much beyond Fairbanks), <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=pak&endDate=20140206&endTime=-1&duration=0" target="_blank">surface observations (AK-only)</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>,
etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the
future. </li>
<li>Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from the Alaska-specific links above). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Fairbanks. </li>
<li>Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for PAFA (select NAM-AK or GFS-NH).</li>
<li>How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/npac.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></li>
<li>Ensembles are your friend. See the Alaska-specific links above for links to the NAEFS and GEFS..</li>
<li>Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times.</li>
<li>Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=AFG&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Fairbanks, AK WFO forecast discussion</a>
for info on PAFA. These are the experts for
that location, after all!</li>
<li>Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ewxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a></li>
<li><a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php </a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, fog and snowcover. Should there be snowcover then temperatures can potentially be a bit colder due to snow's reflective properties and low heat capacity. There will likely be snowcover and an Arctic cold surge during our time forecasting for PAFA so be prepared!</li>
<li>Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</li>
<li>Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers). </li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b><br />
<ul>
<li>NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</li>
<li>Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Take a look at some higher-resolution models (found at the Alaska-specific links above).<a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank"></a></li>
<li>What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? They only have <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml" target="_blank">Alaska forecast outlooks</a> for the medium range (Day 4-7).</li>
<li>Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_npac_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT, for PAFA)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.</li>
<li>Most products you will be looking at
will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.
Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the
forecast calls for snow, make sure you <i>aren't</i> forecasting 4 inches-- use
the liquid equivalent.</li>
</ul>
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2014/01/weather-challenge-spring-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!<br />
<br />
Lasso up some sled dogs and get excited for forecasting for Fairbanks, AK! Or perhaps you'll want to paint a happy little cloud near a happy little tree like the late <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Ross" target="_blank">Bob Ross</a> did after being inspired from living there. (If you're too young to know who Bob Ross is then I quit.) It should be absolutely frigid during the second and third week of February which should making for really cool forecasts (pun intended)! If you have any questions or comments feel free to comment on this post, email me or stop by my office (CH 121). Best of luck forecasting for PAFA and Go Team SBU!!!<br />
<br />
Also, have some fun and <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/city10_suggest_sites.php" target="_blank">submit your choice for the 10th forecast city</a> by 14 February! I totally submitted "KISP", "KBOS" and "KNYC" because I'm wicked into our region. Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-55122121051680245182014-01-26T19:54:00.004-08:002014-01-26T19:56:44.458-08:00City #6: Atlanta, GA (KATL)Welcome back to forecasting for the WxChallenge! I hope you enjoyed your winter break and are excited to get back into the swing of things for this semester. The first forecast city for the Spring semester is <b>Atlanta, GA (KATL)</b>. We will be forecasting for
the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM EST) from 27 January - 6 February.<br />
<br />
Atlanta is located in northwestern Georgia. It is located in the foothills to the south of the Appalachian Mountains at an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanta" target="_blank">elevation of 320 m</a>. The city is pretty unimpeded from Gulf air from the south or Atlantic moisture from the east, should a favorable wind direction set up to transport heat and moisture but it doesn't look like there will be much of that in our first week of forecasting. Time to stalk the airport!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=KATL&aq=&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=4.663056,10.821533&vpsrc=6&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=&ll=33.641095,-84.424316&spn=0.006295,0.006295&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br /><small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=KATL&aq=&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=4.663056,10.821533&vpsrc=6&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=&ll=33.641095,-84.424316&spn=0.006295,0.006295&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">KATL is Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport and is located to the southwest of the city center. KATL's WMO ID is <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KATL" target="_blank">72219</a>.
The only topography around is about 100 km to the north. Be sure to check
in with the local NWS WFO which is the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/" target="_blank">Peachtree City office</a>. A convenient quality of KATL is that it is located in our timezone (EST) to minimize conversions for us! </span>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b>
</span><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
The <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast upper-level pattern</a>
according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting for Atlanta shows a large-amplitude trough across most of the Eastern CONUS persisting throughout the entire week with a few shortwave impulses forcing some sensible weather. This first week would be a bad one to take climatological values for late January temperatures <a href="http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim20/ga/090451.pdf" target="_blank">(50s/30s)</a> given this trough inducing Arctic air to reach the city. The first day of forecasting should provide some challenge regarding precipitation amounts but at least we don't have to worry about precipitation type, just QPF. See the section on precipitation below for some useful resources. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
</span><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>,
etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the
future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Atlanta. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KATL.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Ensembles are your friend. <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastergefs.php?plot=4" target="_blank">Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS</a>. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Peachtree City, GA WFO forecast discussion</a>
for info on KATL. These are the experts for
that location, after all! </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ewxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php </a></span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. Should there be snow-cover <i>(even in Atlanta!)</i> then temperatures can potentially be a bit colder due to snow's reflective properties and low heat capacity.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KATL!</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span><br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"> <span style="font-size: large;"><b> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span><br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html" target="_blank">hi-res NAM</a>) or <a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2014/01/weather-challenge-spring-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">I hope that you are excited to begin forecasting for Atlanta, GA. The first forecast city of the Spring semester is always the city in which the <a href="http://annual.ametsoc.org/2014/" target="_blank">American Meteorological Society's (AMS) Annual Meeting</a> is held. The AMS Annual Meeting will be held from 2-6 February 2014 at the Georgia World Congress Center. A few graduate students and at least one undergraduate that I know of from SBU will be attending along with Professor Colle. If you aren't a Student Member of the AMS, I would highly recommend it as it provides great insight into the field at large as well as scholarship and networking opportunities. So if you want forecasting insight during the second week of forecasting, just pester those attending the conference! Best of luck forecasting for this cold period for Atlanta, GA. Go Team SBU!!!</span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-34847459459024073322014-01-20T20:20:00.000-08:002014-01-26T17:59:17.956-08:00WxChallenge: Spring 2014!<span style="font-size: small;">Welcome to the WxChallenge discussion site for members
of the SBU team (and any esteemed guests, of course)! Most of you have at least one semester of participation in the WxChallenge forecasting competition under your belt and I hope you are ready for another exciting
semester of testing your forecasting knowledge for sites across the
country!</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">On this
site you can find information on each forecast city as well as useful
links and resources to help assist your forecasting process. Normally, a
post specific to each new forecasting city will start off each
forecasting period. Discussions
of especially challenging or boring forecasts are encouraged and are
done by commenting on any post. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>The Challenge</b></u></span><br />
The competition begins for the Spring semester on <b>January 27, 2014</b> for <b>Atlanta, GA (KATL)</b>. The full schedule for the semester is as follows:<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 478px;"><tbody>
<tr><td width="34%"><span class="style1"> </span></td>
<td width="21%"><br /></td>
<td width="45%"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#5F5F5F">
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">City</span></td>
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Identifier</span></td>
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dates</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Atlanta, GA</td>
<td>KATL</td>
<td>January 27 - February 6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fairbanks, AK</td>
<td>PAFA</td>
<td>February 10 - February 20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baltimore, MD</td>
<td>KBWI</td>
<td>February 24 - March 6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Redding, CA</td>
<td>KRDD</td>
<td>March 10 - March 2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TBD via vote</td>
<td>?</td>
<td>March 24 - April 3</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Tourny- Sprinfield, MO KSGF April 7 - May 3<br />
<br />
Source: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php" target="_blank">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php</a><br />
<br />
Forecasts are due at <b>00 UTC</b> and are made for a period <b>06 UTC - 06 UTC</b>.
So until Daylight Savings Time begins, forecasts are due at 7:00 PM after which
it will change to 8:00 PM. You forecast every Monday night - Thursday
night and have Friday's off. After the normal cities are done we take a
break for a week and play one mystery city that has yet to be determined and then all those who qualify will compete in the tournament city which this year is Springfield, MO.<br />
<br />
Recall from last semester, we do get
judged as a team (SUNY-Stony Brook) so please feel free to discuss the
thinking behind your forecasts but you must keep your exact numbers to
yourself.<br />
<br />
For each forecast you must submit a high temperature (F), low
temperature (F), maximum wind speed (kts) and precipitation amount (in).
Note that the wind speed is sustained, not gusts, and the precipitation
amount is the cumulative <i>liquid </i>precipitation- so don't put 12 inches
if you think it will snow a foot!<br />
<br />
That's about all of the important information I wanted to provide here.
For more detailed info and guidelines on the scoring system please see
the <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php" target="_blank">WxChallenge website</a>.
Motivational statement: first and second place forecasters for each
category receive trophies for <i>every </i>city, not just overall or tournament
winners. So there's plenty of opportunities for glory here! The tournament rules are a bit involved and I will explain them in more detail as we get closer to the end of the semester. Click <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php" target="_blank">here</a> and scroll down until you reach "Tournament" if you wanted to read-up in advance.<br />
<br />
Below are a few useful resources however everyone is encouraged to log
onto the Metlab computers and plot model data using nmap2, analyze
soundings with BUFKIT, etc. New this year is an online discussion board called <a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/" target="_blank">MetScholars: Connecting Students in Meteorology</a>. Through that you can find even more links to <a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/thread/17/resources" target="_blank">forecasting resources</a>
and a place for discussion with students from many other colleges and
universities. It may serve as a great platform for learning from your
peers (or the mistakes of your peers!). <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>Useful Links</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Submit your forecasts: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php" target="_blank">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php</a></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Check out the WxChallenge site information and verification: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php" target="_blank">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php </a>(click on the current forecast city's city link) <u><b> </b></u></span><br />
<a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/board/5/forecasting" target="_blank">MetScholars Discussion Topic: Forecasting</a><br />
<br />
<i><b>My favorite WxChallenge-specific sites: </b></i><br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a><br />
<a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php</a><br />
<br />
<b><i>Current Analyses </i></b><br />
<b>-Satellite- </b><br />
<a href="http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=day_night_bm&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20101107.2100.multisat.visir.bckgr.Global_Global_bm.DAYNGT.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15" target="_blank">Global Satellite (NRL)</a><br />
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Regional Satellite (RAP/UCAR) </a><br />
<a href="http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">NASA GOES (ESO)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html" target="_blank">NOAA SSD Satellite Imagery</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/Satellite.html" target="_blank">Satellite (UW-Madison)</a><br />
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b> -Surface-</b></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://ral.ucar.edu/weather/surface/" target="_blank">Surface Obs (RAP/UCAR)</a><br />
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR (UWyo)</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/thetaq_gif/theta_us_anim.html" target="_blank">Surface Potential Temperature Map (UAlbany) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php" target="_blank">National Radar (NOAA)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Weather Prediction Center (WPC)</a><br />
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b>-Upper-levels-</b> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=OBSERVATIONS+AND+ANALYSES&page=OBSERVATIONS+AND+ANALYSES" target="_blank">Upper Air (NCEP)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html" target="_blank">Soundings (UWyoming)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b>-Tropical & Severe Wx-</b> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center (NHC)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/" target="_blank">CIMMS Tropical Cyclones (UWisc-Madison)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Storm Prediction Center (SPC)</a><br />
<a href="http://foggy.somas.stonybrook.edu/cyclonetracks/Atlantic_TC.html" target="_blank">Mike Erickson's TC Track Page </a><br />
<br /></div>
<b><i> </i></b><i><b>Forecasting Resources</b></i>
<br />
<a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">WxForecaster</a><br />
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/" target="_blank">Twisterdata</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewall.html" target="_blank">PSU E-wall</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE" target="_blank">NCEP Model Page </a><br />
<a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">NSSL WRF Page</a> <br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/" target="_blank">University of Washington Site of Loops</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/thread/17/resources" target="_blank">MetScholars Forecasting Resources</a><br />
<a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (Text)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/forecast/" target="_blank">MOS WxChallenge city-specific data (UAlbany) </a><br />
<a href="http://www.weather.gov/ctp/modelData" target="_blank">Ensemble Data Links (Spaghetti plots, SREF, GEFS, etc.) </a><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<i><b>Archived Data</b></i></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl" target="_blank">ESRL Interactive Plotting & Analysis</a><br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/archive/varchive.shtml" target="_blank">North American Historical Wx Maps (UWashington) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/" target="_blank">Radar and Satellite (UCAR)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/" target="_blank">SPC Storm Reports & Mesoanalyses </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/climatenormals/climatenormals.pl?directive=prod_select2&prodtype=CLIM20&subrnum=" target="_blank">Monthly Climate Normals (NCDC)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/thread/39/archived-data" target="_blank">Additional Sources (MetScholars) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<br />
Please
feel free to comment below with any questions or comments. Please let
me know if you have any trouble logging on to submit your forecasts.
Thanks for your enthusiasm and good luck--
let's go SBU!!!</div>
Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-90973248500267441942013-12-02T07:28:00.001-08:002013-12-02T07:28:15.838-08:00City #5: Grand Rapids, MI (KGRR) Congrats on making it this far in the WxChallenge and on your performance so far this semester. While we are certainly not the best team as that is currently UAlbany (at least it's a fellow SUNY, right?), we are doing okay at 40th place. The final forecast city for the Fall semester is <b>Grand Rapids, MI (KGRR)</b>. We will be forecasting for the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM EST) from 2-12 December before taking a break until we start up again in the Spring.<br />
<br />
Grand Rapids, Michigan is located about 50 km (25 mi) east of Lake Michigan on the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and is situated on the Grand River. Even though it is displaced from the shore of the lake, it is still a susceptible city to lake effect or lake-enhanced precipitation. There is no real topography to deal with and KGRR is at an elevation of 245 m. Time to stalk the airport!<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=KGRR&aq=&sll=42.96977,-85.615793&sspn=0.274826,0.453186&ie=UTF8&hq=KGRR&hnear=&t=p&z=11&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=KGRR&aq=&sll=42.96977,-85.615793&sspn=0.274826,0.453186&ie=UTF8&hq=KGRR&hnear=&t=p&z=11&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KGRR" target="_blank">KGRR</a> is Gerald R. Ford International Airport and is located to the southeast of the city center. KGRR's WMO ID is <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KGRR" target="_blank">72635</a>. There is no real topography around and there is a mixture of more developed land to the west versus more tree-filled neighborhoods to the east. Remember that "great" lake to the west, though. Be sure to check in with the local NWS WFO which is the <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/" target="_blank">Grand Rapids office</a>. A convenient quality of KGRR is that it is located in our timezone (EST) to minimize conversions for us! <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br />
The <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast upper-level pattern</a>
according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting for Grand Rapids shows an amplifying pattern throughout the week that is associated with the development of a low pressure system sometime mid-week (there's some model disagreement about the timing). Throughout the week there's a pretty steady chance of light precipitation, especially within the next couple of days with the passage of a <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php" target="_blank">warm front ahead of the strengthening low pressure system</a>. A good tactic for dealing with precipitation forecasts like this is to look at some<a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgrr" target="_blank"> plume diagrams that show the differences between the models</a> and then return to each model and check out some key levels (e.g. is the 850 mb temperature advection too overdone or is there a stronger jet at 300 mb or more positive vorticity advection at 500 mb?). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span><span style="font-size: xx-small;">
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>,
etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the
future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Grand Rapids. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KGRR.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Ensembles are your friend. <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastergefs.php?plot=4" target="_blank">Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS</a>. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Grand Rapids, MI WFO forecast discussion</a>
for the GRR CWA. Keep in mind that they are covering a few diverse
landscapes (coastline and higher terrain). These are the experts for
that location, after all! </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ewxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php" target="_blank">http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php </a></span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KGRR!</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2013/09/wxchallenge-2013-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!</span><br />
<br />
I hope you are Team Jacob because Grand Rapids is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Lautner" target="_blank">Taylor Lautner</a>'s hometown as well as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reed_Timmer" target="_blank">Reed Timmer</a>'s which is more appropriate given our field of study. Best of luck forecasting for KGRR! Go Team SBU!!! Have a very Happy Holidays and enjoy your Winter Break! We'll resume forecasting on 27 January 2014. Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-24927974263888265972013-11-10T17:33:00.001-08:002013-11-11T06:52:41.041-08:00City #4: Concord, NH (KCON)Forecasting for Norman, OK is officially over and we are moving on to a city a bit closer to home, Concord, NH. We will be
forecasting for <b>Concord, NH (KCON)</b> for the 24-h period (06 UTC -
06 UTC) from 11 November - 21 November which is 1 AM - 1 AM EST. Forecasts are due at 00 UTC which is 7 PM EST. After we finish up forecasting for KCON we get a week off for the Thanksgiving holiday and then resume forecasting for our final forecasting city which is Grand Rapids, MI. Just a heads up! We have to survive forecasting for the Northeast first, though.<br />
<br />
Concord, NH was named because it was territory that was disputed between two early settlers and by naming it so they hoped it would create harmony or peace between the opposing people. Let's hope that forecasting for it is filled with peace and harmony and less hair-pulling-out than the uncertain convection that we dealt with for Norman, OK! Concord is located in south-central New Hampshire about 100 km south of the White Mountains. It is located in a flood plain of the Merrimack River at an elevation of around 150 m above sea level. <br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Concord+Municipal+Airport,+Concord,+NH&aq=0&oq=Concord+Municipal+&sll=35.375614,-80.337524&sspn=1.294413,2.705383&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=Concord+Municipal+Airport,+Concord,+NH&z=14&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=Concord+Municipal+Airport,+Concord,+NH&aq=0&oq=Concord+Municipal+&sll=35.375614,-80.337524&sspn=1.294413,2.705383&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=Concord+Municipal+Airport,+Concord,+NH&z=14&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small> <br />
<br />
Time to stalk KCON! KCON is located across the river from the city and has a <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KCON" target="_blank">WMO ID of 72605</a> and an elevation of 105 m. There is not too much in the way of complex terrain in the vicinity of Concord so that takes out a bit of mesoscale complexity for forecasting. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast upper-level pattern</a>
according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting for Concord, NH is leading off with a strong cold frontal passage forecast for Monday evening that may force some showers but will definitely mark the new colder air mass settling into place over the Northeast. No strong synoptic players seem to be emerging for the later part of the week so the forecasting challenge should be getting the temperatures just right. I recommend playing around with BUFKIT in the Met. Lab and paying attenion to any forecast saturated layers indicating cloud cover which would definitely affect the high/low temperatures. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span><span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>,
etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the
future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Concord. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KCON.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Ensembles are your friend. <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastergefs.php?plot=4" target="_blank">Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS</a>. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off" target="_blank">Gray/Portland, Maine WFO forecast discussion</a> for the GYX CWA. Keep in mind that they are covering a few diverse landscapes (coastline and higher terrain). These are the experts for that location, after all! </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Ewxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/" target="_blank">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</a></span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KCON!</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">e.g. easterly winds should be
more moist (coming from the Atlantic) which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime
temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a
lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime
temperatures. </span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span>
<br />
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Tropical activity</a>? (Oh my goodness, I hope not... but it is still before 1 December!)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2013/09/wxchallenge-2013-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!<br />
<br />
Alright
guys- you are all doing really well with the WxChallenge and I hope that you have fun with this second-to-last forecast city for the Fall 2013 semester! It's definitely fun to be back in the Northeast, right? Pay attention to the broad synoptic pattern at hand and use your best judgement to get those diurnal temperature swings just right! If you ever have any
questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I <i>
<b>still</b> </i>have candy. That is all. Good luck with KCON and let's go Team SBU!!!</span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-87918357820280694302013-10-27T10:43:00.002-07:002013-10-28T06:59:32.908-07:00City #3: Norman, OK (NRMN)Forecasting for Cheyenne, WY is officially over and we are moving on to an exciting addition to the WxChallenge. We will now be forecasting for a Mesonet station in <a href="http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/sites/site_description/nrmn" target="_blank">Norman, OK (NRMN)</a>. This is not a METAR site at an airport as we are used to with available ~hourly data. The <a href="http://www.mesonet.org/index.php" target="_blank">Oklahoma Mesonet</a> is a network of high temporal and spatial observations. Data is collected approximately every 5 minutes and observations from these stations can be incredibly interesting when they observe a frontal passage or any mesoscale or convective boundaries. We will be forecasting for <b>Norman, OK (NRMN)</b> for the 24-h period (06 UTC - 06 UTC) from 28 October - 7 November which is 1 AM - 1 AM CDT for the first week of forecasting but is 12 AM - 12 AM CST for the second week of forecasting thanks to Daylight Savings Time ending on 3 November. <b>So that means that forecasts are still due at 00 UTC which is 8 PM EDT for the first week of forecasting for Norman but at 7 PM EST for the second week of forecasting for Norman!</b> Please, please, please remember that! I'll walk by Professor Colle's class on Monday, 4 November playing this from my phone just in case...<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/d020hcWA_Wg" width="480"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Time to stalk NRMN! Norman, OK is located in central Oklahoma due south of Oklahoma City which means it is incredibly flat. The observation site is located right near the <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KOUN" target="_blank">ASOS station for Norman, OK (KOUN)</a> at the Max Westheimer Airport. It is collocated with the University of Oklahoma Research Park (where the NWS forecast office used to be) where they have a dual-pol radar and a phased-array radar that they test and you can see by zooming in on the satellite imagery below. The airport is located to the northeast of the <a href="http://www.nwc.ou.edu/" target="_blank">National Weather Center</a> which houses many things including NSSL, SPC, The University of Oklahoma Meteorology Department and the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/" target="_blank">Norman, OK NWS Weather Forecast Office</a>. If you ever have an opportunity to go to the National Weather Center- definitely go. I spent a weekend there in January and then an entire summer there in 2010 and it was an incredible experience with <i>very </i>interesting weather. Anyway, the Mesonet site has <a href="http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/sites/site_description/nrmn" target="_blank">a great page devoted to it</a> with panoramic photos and a ton of information so I would definitely check it out. A live webcam image can be found on the <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/13-14/NRMN/nrmn.php" target="_blank">WxChallenge site information page for NRMN</a>. For a meteogram of the data, <a href="http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/meteogram/nrmn" target="_blank">click here</a>. Even though the observational data is available at a higher temporal frequency than the ASOS data we are used to, the rules for the WxChallenge are not changing in any way except that the verification will come from the 5-minute data instead of the hourly and the wind data is going to come from the 5-minute <i>10-meter wind sensor</i> instead of the 2-m wind. A cool thing about this is that our scores will actually be updated every 5 minutes instead of every hour... although that might drive some people insane if they are prone to compulsively checking the scores. ;-) For a full list of rule changes and site information for NRMN, please consult the <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/13-14/NRMN/nrmn.php" target="_blank">WxChallenge page</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?q=35.236110,-97.464880&ie=UTF8&t=h&z=14&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?q=35.236110,-97.464880&ie=UTF8&t=h&z=14&source=embed" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast upper-level pattern</a> for the start of our first week of forecasting for Norman, OK is tricky. There is an upper-level low that is strengthening over the Rocky Mountains (deepening trough) which will allow for some ridging downstream which may usher in some warm, moist air into Oklahoma. There may be some weak upper-level disturbances out ahead of the main system that, combined with the moisture gradient across the region, may force some showers and thunderstorm activity. </span>The low should move eastward and cause some precipitation for NRMN sometime mid-week. The timing of the frontal passage and the strength of the pre-system disturbances are still a bit up in the air... literally. For the rest of the time forecasting for Norman, the <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif" target="_blank">AO</a> is expected to trend negative which may mean amplified flow and consistent disturbances tracking across the US. The GFS in its "dreamland" hours (> fh 180) hint at this type of pattern. We'll see!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. Use Norman, OK (KOUN) in place of the Mesonet Site (NRMN) but to check out the current observations with the Mesonet site you can <a href="http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/meteogram/nrmn" target="_blank">look at an updated meteogram</a>. And also see the <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/13-14/NRMN/nrmn_data.txt" target="_blank">3-day observation history for NRMN</a>.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Norman. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KOUN (close enough to NRMN).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Norman WFO forecast discussion</a> for KOUN/NRMN. These are the experts for that location, after all! </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:</span></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/"><span style="font-size: small;">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/"><span style="font-size: small;">http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/</span></a></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">i.e. southeasterly winds should be
more moist which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime
temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a
lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime
temperatures. </span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a>
for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, because of the flat terrain, advection plays a major role especially with deep troughs allowing for cold, Canadian air to spill into the Central US.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: medium;">
</span><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span>
<br />
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Tropical activity</a>?</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2013/09/wxchallenge-2013-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a <i>long </i>list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!<br />
<br />
Alright
guys- I hope you are excited to forecast for a Mesonet station for the first ever time in WxChallenge history!!! Norman, OK is an awesome city (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boomer_Sooner" target="_blank">Boomer Sooner</a>!!!) and is very vulnerable to air masses coming from any direction because it is just so flat and in the middle of everything. If you ever have any
questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I <i>
still </i>have candy. That is all. Good luck with NRMN and let's go Team SBU!!!</span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-45697442062139709502013-10-12T18:00:00.000-07:002013-10-14T07:55:50.752-07:00City #2: Cheyenne, WY (KCYS)<span style="font-size: small;">With the barely predictable convective rainfall, aren't you happy to be done with forecasting for Houston, TX? I know I am. We are now forecasting for <b>Cheyenne, WY (KCYS)</b> from <b>14 October - 24 October</b> for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06
UTC which translates to 12 AM local Cheyenne time (MDT) if you are
looking at <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/cys/" target="_blank">NWS Cheyenne forecast products</a>. Forecasts need to be <b>submitted by 00 UTC which is 8 PM local Long Island time (EDT)</b>.</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Time to stalk the airport! Cheyenne, WY is located near the southeast corner of the state of Wyoming just east of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laramie_Mountains" target="_blank">Laramie Mountains</a>.</span> <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/kcys" target="_blank">KCYS</a> is Cheyenne Airport with a WMO ID of 72564. There is very flat terrain south, east and north of the station which may allow for unimpeded advection of heat and moisture with strong systems from winds from those directions. Something to keep in mind!<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=CYS&aq=&sll=46.002831,-123.920002&sspn=0.137841,0.338173&ie=UTF8&hq=CYS&t=m&z=15&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=CYS&aq=&sll=46.002831,-123.920002&sspn=0.137841,0.338173&ie=UTF8&hq=CYS&t=m&z=15&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">I think that forecasting for Cheyenne will prove challenging given the general troughiness in place that may allow for a few disturbances to develop along shortwaves that may develop. </span><span style="font-size: small;">A look at <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a>
according to the GFS ensemble shows that the general trend in heights seems to
be highly amplified early in the forecasting period (the first week) and returning in a more zonal structure for the second week. With a mean trough set up over the Rockies, a resultant continental cyclone will likely be the main player early on. To see if I'm right, check out <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php" target="_blank">what WPC is calling for</a>. The position of Cheyenne relative to the cyclone will affect both temperatures and precipitation amount and the strong pressure gradient will definitely affect wind speeds. Take a look at the 1000-500 mb thickness values and pay special attention to that 540 dam line as a good indication of a rain/snow line. Keep in mind that for the WxChallenge precipitation forecast, it is <i>liquid equivalent in inches</i>! Models all output as such but don't look at any info-graphics calling for Cheyenne to get 3 feet and then put 36 inches; I will laugh at you because you have been properly warned. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://www.weather.gov/Radar" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Cheyenne. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KCYS.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CYS&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Cheyenne WFO forecast discussion</a> for KCYS. These are the experts for that location, after all! </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures.</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">i.e. southeasterly winds should be
more moist which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime
temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a
lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime
temperatures. </span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a>
for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, westerlies may allow for downslope warming of air towards Cheyenne. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Tropical activity</a>?!? (Part of me wants there to be while another part of me doesn't at all.) </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2013/09/wxchallenge-2013-2014.html" target="_blank">check out a previous post found here</a> for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>.<br />
<br />
Alright
guys- let's not let CYS make rodeo clowns out of us! If you ever have any
questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I
have candy. That is all. Good luck with KCYS and let's go Team SBU!!!</span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-711606089283739342013-09-29T08:19:00.000-07:002013-09-30T07:03:43.862-07:00City #1: Houston, TX (KHOU)<span style="font-size: small;">Welcome to forecasting for the WxChallenge for the 2013-2014 academic year! Check out the previous post for general information about this forecasting contest. Are you pumped to test out your skills?! City #1 is the first
city for the fall 2013 semester. We are forecasting for <b>Houston, TX
(KHOU)</b> from <b>30 September - 10 October</b> for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06
UTC which translates to 1 AM local Houstin time (CDT) if you are
looking at <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/" target="_blank">NWS Houston/Galveston forecast products</a>. Forecasts need to be <b>submitted by 00 UTC which is 8 PM local Long Island time (EDT)</b>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Houston is located on the southeastern coast of Texas on the Gulf of Mexico. It is not an accident that it was chosen as the first forecast city for the WxChallenge for early October-- it's still hurricane season! Perhaps the organizers of the WxChallenge are refusing to give up on this pretty pathetic tropical season so we have to admire their spirit! Houston, TX is also a really important city to forecast for because it is a major shipping port (one of the busiest in the country). As Joe Sienkiewicz of the <a href="http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Ocean Prediction Center</a> once said, "Only two things travel by air: people and fish. Everything else travels by ship." Also, Houston is home to the second highest number of Fortune 500 companies just behind our beloved NYC! Therefore, if you were to work for a private forecasting firm, I'm pretty sure you'd have some customers who cared <i>a lot</i> about Houston. (Source: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houston" target="_blank">Wikipedia is amazing</a>)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span>
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=William+P.+Hobby+Airport,+Airport+Boulevard,+Houston,+TX&aq=0&oq=William&sll=29.647705,-95.268631&sspn=0.043115,0.084543&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=&z=16&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=William+P.+Hobby+Airport,+Airport+Boulevard,+Houston,+TX&aq=0&oq=William&sll=29.647705,-95.268631&sspn=0.043115,0.084543&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=&z=16" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br />
Time to stalk the airport! <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KHOU" target="_blank">KHOU</a> is William P. Hobby Airport with a WMO ID of 72244. The <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KHOU" target="_blank">METAR location page of the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS)</a> that will be used to verify your forecast actually has images of the station from each direction (images are found directly below the map). This is the best airport stalking that we've been able to do since I started this blog last year! So you can see that this location is flat, in unimpeded (no real topography) proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and more closely Galveston Bay and pretty developed (more urban than not). So warm, moist air is likely constantly coming off of the Gulf given southerly and southeasterly flow and drier air will likely be advected by the mean flow from most other directions. We'll definitely keep that in mind.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">A good question to ask before looking at the current weather pattern is what conditions are typically expected at KHOU? A quick way to familiarize yourself with the climatology of a station is to look up the climate normals which for <a href="http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim20/tx/414307.pdf" target="_blank">KHOU are found here</a>. The mean maximum daily temperature from the period of 1981-2010 for the months of September and October is in the mid-80's and the minimum is in the upper-60's. October is also one of the more wetter months for Houston with the exception of July which is during the height of the convective season. Temperatures and precipitation can always occur outside of the climate envelope, especially if a huge ridge of high pressure develops over the central US (above normal temps), a deep trough (below normal temps), or a tropical system crashes into the coast (way above normal precipitation). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b></span>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">I suspect that forecasting for Houston, TX will be messy because there are three main forecasting challenges: mesoscale boundaries, diurnal convection, and tropical systems.... </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">- A mesoscale boundary is a smaller boundary than a larger-scale (synoptic-scale) front and can form from the outflow of previous convection or just along some weakly convergent winds. If there is sufficient instability and I doubt moisture will be an issue, then there will be forcing for precipitation. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">-Diurnal convection is an issue because given the absense of a strong synoptic-scale player, daytime heating of the surface can allow for any moist air near Houston to rise given enough instability to form storms. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">-As I mentioned before, it is still the season for tropical activity and the <a href="http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/sst.php" target="_blank">Gulf of Mexico is sufficiently warm</a> and convection has been consistently developing especially with the penetration of cold fronts into the Tropics that allows for the generation of vorticity (spin needed to organize systems) if the shear is not too detrimental. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a>
according to the GFS shows that the general trend in heights seems to be relatively zonal in nature so diurnal convection may be the primary forecasting challenge during our first week of forecasting. Depending on the speed of the propagation of the low pressure system forecast to develop lee of the Rockies by the end of the week, there may be a cold frontal passage (cold FROPA) to deal with. And of course, we can't ignore any tropical activity.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Summary of what to watch out for:</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Small-scale (mesoscale) boundaries that may provide forcing for precipitation and changes in temperature</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Zoom-in and look around <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif" target="_blank">this version of the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) surface analysis</a> to get a handle on what's going on that day and therefore what still may be an active player around 06 UTC. </span></li>
</ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Cold fronts: heavy precipitation and rapid temperature changes.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Tropical cyclones or general areas of tropical convection spinning around the Gulf.</span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the satellite the evening before to see if there are any clusters of convection that perhaps the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center (NHC)</a>
isn't too worried about but you should be! (Keep in mind that
convection tends to weaken at night given its diurnal nature even over
warm ocean waters so check the afternoon before to see what's happening
in the southwestern Gulf.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Another good tropical website is the <a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#" target="_blank">U. of Wisconsin-Madison CIMMS page</a> with regional real-time products found below the TC-specific products (if there are even any active TCs, *sigh*).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Trust the experts and read the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml" target="_blank">NHC Atlantic Discussion</a>, especially the Gulf of Mexico section. </span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Houston. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KHOU.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/6hrprecip/namer/6hrprecip_namer_dprog.html" target="_blank"> like this one that focuses on the GFS.</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Houston/Galveston WFO forecast discussion</a> for KHOU. These are the experts for that location, afterall! </span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Given quiet synoptic players, the
evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some
forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">model output statistics (MOS)</a> is bonkers).
Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which
may affect the nighttime temperatures, </span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">i.e. southeasterly winds should be
more moist which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime
temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a
lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime
temperatures. </span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a>
for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, westerlies may
bring warmer continental air towards Houston for some synoptic
situations. </span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Tropical activity</a>?!? (Part of me wants there to be while another part of me doesn't at all.) </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/pw_stdanom/pw_stdanom_namer_loop.html" target="_blank">GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of <i>precipitable </i>water (PWAT)</a> to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
Be sure to <a href="http://sbuwxchallenge.blogspot.com/2013/09/wxchallenge-2013-2014.html" target="_blank">check out the previous post found here</a> for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's <a href="http://comap.weebly.com/useful-links.html" target="_blank">Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website</a>.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Alright
guys- grab your cowboy hats and boots and let's try to lasso up some
great forecasts! It should be a challenging forecast city so it makes
the perfect first one of the 2013-2014 contest! If you ever have any
questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I
have candy. That is all. Good luck with KHOU and let's go Team SBU!!!</span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-9266834538059335612013-09-02T20:10:00.001-07:002013-10-02T11:44:12.830-07:00WxChallenge 2013-2014!<span style="font-size: small;">Welcome to the WxChallenge discussion site for members of the SBU team (and any esteemed guests, of course)! If you are new to the WxChallenge forecasting competition then you are in for an exciting year of testing your forecasting knowledge for sites across the country!</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">On this
site you can find information on each forecast city as well as useful
links and resources to help assist your forecasting process. Normally, a post specific to each new forecasting city will start off each forecasting period. Discussions
of especially challenging or boring forecasts are encouraged and are
done by commenting on any post. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>The Challenge</b></u></span><br />
The competition begins on <b>September 30, 2013</b> for <b>Houston, TX (KHOU)</b>. The full schedule for the Fall semester is as follows:<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 478px;"><tbody>
<tr><td width="34%"><span class="style1"> </span></td>
<td width="21%"><br /></td>
<td width="45%"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#5F5F5F">
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">City</span></td>
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Identifier</span></td>
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dates</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Houston, TX</td>
<td>KHOU</td>
<td>September 30 - October10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cheyenne, WY</td>
<td>KCYS</td>
<td>October 14 - October 24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Norman, OK</td>
<td>KRMN</td>
<td>October 28 - November 7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Concord, NH</td>
<td>KCON</td>
<td>November 11 - November 21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Grand Rapids, MI</td>
<td>KGRR</td>
<td>December 2 - December 12</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Source: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php" target="_blank">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php</a><br />
<br />
Forecasts are due at <b>00 UTC</b> and are made for a period <b>06 UTC - 06 UTC</b>.
So until Daylight Savings Time, forecasts are due at 8:00 PM after which
it will change to 7:00 PM. You forecast every Monday night - Thursday
night and have Friday's off. After the Fall cities are done we take a
break and resume in the Spring semester.<br />
<br />
The cost for participation in both the Fall and Spring semesters is $5;
the cost for one semester is $3. Your forecaster ID must contain 6
letters and/or numbers. You will be put in a category with other
participants of your level, e.g. Category 4: Freshmen/Sophomores,
Category 3: Juniors/Seniors, Category 2: Grad students, etc. It is not
unusual and is highly encouraged for Cat 4 forecasters to kick Cat 2
forecasters' butts. Just putting that out there. However, we do get
judged as a team (SUNY-Stony Brook) so please feel free to discuss the thinking behind your forecasts but you must keep your exact numbers to yourself.<br />
<br />
For each forecast you must submit a high temperature (F), low
temperature (F), maximum wind speed (kts) and precipitation amount (in).
Note that the wind speed is sustained, not gusts, and the precipitation
amount is the cumulative <i>liquid </i>precipitation- so don't put 12 inches
if you think it will snow a foot!<br />
<br />
That's about all of the important information I wanted to provide here.
For more detailed info and guidelines on the scoring system please see
the <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php" target="_blank">WxChallenge website</a>.
Motivational statement: first and second place forecasters for each
category receive trophies for <i>every </i>city, not just overall or tournament
winners. So there's plenty of opportunities for glory here!<br />
<br />
Below are a few useful resources however everyone is encouraged to log
onto the Metlab computers and plot model data using nmap2, analyze
soundings with BUFKIT, etc. New this year is an online discussion board called <a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/" target="_blank">MetScholars: Connecting Students in Meteorology</a>. Through that you can find even more links to <a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/thread/17/resources" target="_blank">forecasting resources</a> and a place for discussion with students from many other colleges and universities. It may serve as a great platform for learning from your peers (or the mistakes of your peers!). <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>Useful Links</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Submit your forecasts: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php" target="_blank">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php</a></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Check out the WxChallenge site information and verification: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php" target="_blank">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php </a>(click on the current forecast city's city link) <u><b> </b></u></span><br />
<a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/board/5/forecasting" target="_blank">MetScholars Discussion Topic: Forecasting</a><br />
<br />
<b><i>Current Analyses </i></b><br />
<b>-Satellite- </b><br />
<a href="http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=day_night_bm&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20101107.2100.multisat.visir.bckgr.Global_Global_bm.DAYNGT.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15" target="_blank">Global Satellite (NRL)</a><br />
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Regional Satellite (RAP/UCAR) </a><br />
<a href="http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">NASA GOES (ESO)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html" target="_blank">NOAA SSD Satellite Imagery</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/Satellite.html" target="_blank">Satellite (UW-Madison)</a><br />
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b> -Surface-</b></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://ral.ucar.edu/weather/surface/" target="_blank">Surface Obs (RAP/UCAR)</a><br />
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR (UWyo)</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/thetaq_gif/theta_us_anim.html" target="_blank">Surface Potential Temperature Map (UAlbany) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php" target="_blank">National Radar (NOAA)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Weather Prediction Center (WPC)</a><br />
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b>-Upper-levels-</b> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=OBSERVATIONS+AND+ANALYSES&page=OBSERVATIONS+AND+ANALYSES" target="_blank">Upper Air (NCEP)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html" target="_blank">Soundings (UWyoming)</a><br />
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b>-Tropical & Severe Wx-</b> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center (NHC)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/" target="_blank">CIMMS Tropical Cyclones (UWisc-Madison)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Storm Prediction Center (SPC)</a><br />
<a href="http://foggy.somas.stonybrook.edu/cyclonetracks/Atlantic_TC.html" target="_blank">Mike Erickson's TC Track Page </a><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<b><i> </i></b><i><b>Forecasting Resources</b></i>
<br />
<a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">WxForecaster</a><br />
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/" target="_blank">Twisterdata</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewall.html" target="_blank">PSU E-wall</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE" target="_blank">NCEP Model Page </a><br />
<a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">NSSL WRF Page</a> <br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/" target="_blank">University of Washington Site of Loops</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/thread/17/resources" target="_blank">MetScholars Forecasting Resources</a><br />
<a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (Text)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/forecast/" target="_blank">MOS WxChallenge city-specific data (UAlbany) </a><br />
<a href="http://www.weather.gov/ctp/modelData" target="_blank">Ensemble Data Links (Spaghetti plots, SREF, GEFS, etc.) </a><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<i><b>Archived Data</b></i></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl" target="_blank">ESRL Interactive Plotting & Analysis</a><br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/archive/varchive.shtml" target="_blank">North American Historical Wx Maps (UWashington) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/" target="_blank">Radar and Satellite (UCAR)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/" target="_blank">SPC Storm Reports & Mesoanalyses </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/climatenormals/climatenormals.pl?directive=prod_select2&prodtype=CLIM20&subrnum=" target="_blank">Monthly Climate Normals (NCDC)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://metscholars.proboards.com/thread/39/archived-data" target="_blank">Additional Sources (MetScholars) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<br />
Please feel free to comment below with any questions or comments. Please let me know if you have any trouble logging on to submit your forecasts. Thanks for your enthusiasm and good luck--
let's go SBU!!!</div>
Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-11129808003813983372013-04-07T19:32:00.000-07:002013-04-07T19:32:40.724-07:00*Bonus Forecast City* Wichita, KS (KICT)Congratulations on completing your participation in WxChallenge for the 2012-2013 academic year! The WxChallenge switches gears to a tournament starting Monday, 8 April. While everyone is invited to participate in forecasting for this city, only two SBUer's forecasts actually count. Congratulations to <b>BillyS </b>for getting in the top 32 and <b>4castr </b>for getting in the top 64 for each of their categories!!! You guys rock! So if you are neither BillyS nor 4castr, why would you still forecast for Wichita? Well, if you end up doing better than them (because your score is still calculated although it doesn't count towards anything) you could tease the heck out of them. Just kidding, but Wichita should be a blast to forecast for. Who says "blast"? I do.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/32600000/The-Wizard-of-Oz-the-wizard-of-oz-32641116-400-300.jpg" target="_blank">Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore</a>... Except that we are.<br />
<br />
We will be forecasting for Wichita for <i>four </i>weeks (8 Apr - 4 May). The tournament schedule is a little different-- forecasts are due by 00 UTC on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Note that you <i>do not</i> forecast on Wednesday and you <i>do </i>forecast on Friday. Wednesdays are when they determine who moves onto the next round, bracket-style. The full rules are found <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php" target="_blank">here</a>. <br />
<br />
Wichita, KS (KICT, Wichita Mid-Continent Airport) is located in south-central Kansas. The Arkansas River is the largest water body nearby so besides that, there is really nothing geographically significant. Wichita is flat. Stalking the airport we see that it is located to the southwest of the city center.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=kict+airport&aq=&sll=37.688889,-97.336111&sspn=0.276576,0.676346&t=h&gl=us&ie=UTF8&hq=kict+airport&hnear=&z=10&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=kict+airport&aq=&sll=37.688889,-97.336111&sspn=0.276576,0.676346&t=h&gl=us&ie=UTF8&hq=kict+airport&hnear=&z=10" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;">I'm pretty sure this city won the voting because it would be a likely center of action for any severe weather activity during the forecast period. I'm sure the atmosphere won't disappoint! No seriously, I'm <i>sure </i>the atmosphere won't disappoint and a first quick look for you should be what th<span style="font-size: small;">e <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">SPC</a> is saying<span style="font-size: small;"> for the coming days<span style="font-size: small;"> and you'll be sure<span style="font-size: small;">, too!</span></span></span></span></span></small><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Springtime in the <span style="font-size: small;">Plains is the severe weather season<span style="font-size: small;">. There are three ingredients for convection: moisture, instability, and lift. The moisture is usually present from strong southerly advection off of the Gulf of Mexico<span style="font-size: small;"> and can be seen by <span style="font-size: small;">paying attention to dew point values from <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, or plots of <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/thetaq_gif/mixr_us_anim.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: small;">mixing ratio</span></a>,<span style="font-size: small;"> or any other <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/" target="_blank">low-level </a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/" target="_blank">moisture fields</a>. The instab<span style="font-size: small;">ility usually comes from the <span style="font-size: small;">solar heating of the sur<span style="font-size: small;">face<span style="font-size: small;">, hence why most severe con<span style="font-size: small;">vection tends to occur in the afternoon and evening hours. <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">Current and forecast soundings for ICT</a> can help deduce where the most instability is. <span style="font-size: small;">You can have all of the instability in the world, but if there is no lifting mechanism then the worst threat is air mass thunderstorms. The lifting mechanism is <span style="font-size: small;">a synoptic-scale system <span style="font-size: small;">whose low center, warm front, and cold front (and dry line if it forms-- pay attention to the dew point gradient <span style="font-size: small;">being much larger than</span> the temperature gradi<span style="font-size: small;">ent)</span></span></span></span> can provide the lift needed to generate severe convection. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></small><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">So what specialized tools are available? Luckily, a lot! I would first go to the experts themselves at the <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Storm Prediction Center</a> to see what's up. To get a handle on the current conditions, I would look through a few fields by means of a <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/" target="_blank">mesoanalysis</a>. After that, I would use the <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php" target="_blank">SREF</a> to look at forecast moisture (2m dew point), instability (CAPE: surface-based and most unstable), and lift (frontogenesis). Isolating precipitation amounts, I would look to a <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">high-resolution WRF</a> run that hopefully will be run out far enough to make an accurate forecast. But that's what I would do and I didn't make the tourney ;-).</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b><br />
<b> </b>
<br />
A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a> according to the GFS
shows a lee trough <span style="font-size: small;">east of the Rocky Mountains which should maint<span style="font-size: small;">ain a low pressure system that may <span style="font-size: small;">spark some severe weather for KICT u<span style="font-size: small;">ntil Wednesday</span>. That moves through and <span style="font-size: small;">weak r<span style="font-size: small;">i<span style="font-size: small;">dging or more zonal flow should <span style="font-size: small;">occur through the end of the week<span style="font-size: small;">. Another system may <span style="font-size: small;">be present for the late weekend into early next week. Special attention <span style="font-size: small;">should <span style="font-size: small;">be given to the <span style="font-size: small;">Weather Predic<span style="font-size: small;">tion Center <span style="font-size: small;">(WPC) forecasts <span style="font-size: small;">of the <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php" target="_blank">general pattern</a> and <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">QPF</a> and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts of any <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">severe activity</a>. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Wichita (KICT):</b>
<br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Analy<span style="font-size: small;">ze all ingredients for convection, starting with the <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">SPC products and tools</a>.</span> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <i>more than one deterministic model</i>, especially <a href="http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/" target="_blank">side-by-side comparisons</a>, <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=comparemodels&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">toggling between models</a> (Mode: Clickable Map), or even better- ensembles (<a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html" target="_blank">SREF/GEFS Plumes</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Efxg1/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF Maps</a>, <a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/enscompare/" target="_blank">GEFS Maps</a>).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">WxChallenge's wind forecast is for <i>sustained</i>, not gusts. Instead of just looking at plan-view maps at or near the surface, try taking a look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast soundings</a>.
The measured wind speed is a 2-minute average. Gusts often occur
because with heavy precip, higher momentum air can be brought down to
the surface, i.e. winds reach the surface via more than just mixing, but
unless they persist for about 2-minutes they won't verify. So I don't think a tornado's fury would <span style="font-size: small;">count for the wind speed.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Really</i> read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ICT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)</a>. Those forecasters are experts in the intricacies of forecasting for Wichita.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ict&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on <span style="font-size: small;">Wichita</span>. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KICT.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ICT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Wichita, KS WFO forecast discussion</a> for KICT.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b> </b><br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC (formerly known as HPC)</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (if no local option then try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">SPC's SREF page</a>))</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Congratulations<span style="font-size: small;">, again, to BillyS and 4castr for getting into the tournament! Congratulations to the rest of you for getting through a whole aca<span style="font-size: small;">demic </span>year of forecasting for all over the U<span style="font-size: small;">nited States! I hope that you all learned a lot or at least gained a<span style="font-size: small;"> greater appreciation for forecasting for <span style="font-size: small;">places other than SBU. However, <span style="font-size: small;">it's true that there's no place like home *clicks heels.*<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span>If you ever have any questions about <span style="font-size: small;">forecasting, the WxChallenge, or just want to talk about weather<span style="font-size: small;">--</span> feel free to e-mail me, comment on this post, or stop by my office.<span style="font-size: small;"> You guys rock and hopefully you'll forecast next year, too! Go <span style="font-size: small;">Te<span style="font-size: small;">am SBU!!! </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-59637766098268614482013-03-25T07:27:00.001-07:002013-03-25T07:27:40.301-07:00City #10: Des Moines, IA (KDSM)! *Final Official Forecast City of the Year!*I hope you all enjoyed your spring break even though you didn't get a break from forecasting! We are done with Duluth and move south to <b>Des Moines, IA (KDSM)</b>. We will be forecasting for the 24-hour period from 06-06 UTC from 25 March - 4 April. Forecasts are due by 00 UTC which is 8 PM local time. 06 UTC corresponds with 1 AM CDT if you are looking at the <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/" target="_blank">NWS Des Moines, IA page</a>. <br />
<br />
Des Moines is geographically plain in my opinion, mainly due to the fact that it is flat and land-locked and part of the Great Plains. The main atmospheric drivers will be synoptic systems and diurnal patterns. So given that, it should be a straight-forward city to forecast for.<br />
<br />
Taking the time to stalk the airport, we see that KDSM is located in central Iowa at the intersections of I-35 and I-80. There's no real significant topographic or water bodies nearby. The airport is located southwest of the city center with suburban areas to its east and a lot of farm fields to its west-southwest. If it was more Springy (yes, that's a word) then I'd expect humidity to be higher when winds blow over the fields due to evapotranspiration but I'm pretty sure the season isn't in full bloom yet. <br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Des+Moines+International+Airport,+Fleur+Drive,+Des+Moines,+IA&aq=0&oq=kdsm+airport&sll=41.547384,-93.64393&sspn=0.104063,0.109005&ie=UTF8&hq=Des+Moines+International+Airport,+Fleur+Drive,+Des+Moines,+IA&t=h&z=14&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=Des+Moines+International+Airport,+Fleur+Drive,+Des+Moines,+IA&aq=0&oq=kdsm+airport&sll=41.547384,-93.64393&sspn=0.104063,0.109005&ie=UTF8&hq=Des+Moines+International+Airport,+Fleur+Drive,+Des+Moines,+IA&t=h&z=14&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b>
<br />
A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a> according to the GFS </span>
<span style="font-size: small;">shows general trough<span style="font-size: small;">ing in the East for the first week of <span style="font-size: small;">forecasting with <span style="font-size: small;">general rid<span style="font-size: small;">ging in the <span style="font-size: small;">Central and Western US. A few shortwaves move up and over the ridge and slide down the trough <span style="font-size: small;">which may provide some forcing for wea<span style="font-size: small;">k precipitation<span style="font-size: small;"> or general cloudiness<span style="font-size: small;"> for a couple days. No real systems seem to<span style="font-size: small;"> be <span style="font-size: small;">affecting <span style="font-size: small;">KDSM for the <span style="font-size: small;">first week of forecasting. In fact, a cutoff low off o<span style="font-size: small;">f the <span style="font-size: small;">West Coast seems to <span style="font-size: small;">amplify the ridge lee of the Rockies so there may be springlike conditions felt in KDSM by the end of the week. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Des Moines (KDSM):</b></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <i>more than one deterministic model</i>, especially <a href="http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/" target="_blank">side-by-side comparisons</a>, <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=comparemodels&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">toggling between models</a> (Mode: Clickable Map), or even better- ensembles (<a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html" target="_blank">SREF/GEFS Plumes</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Efxg1/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF Maps</a>, <a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/enscompare/" target="_blank">GEFS Maps</a>).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">WxChallenge's wind forecast is for <i>sustained</i>, not gusts. Instead of just looking at plan-view maps at or near the surface, try taking a look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast soundings</a>.
The measured wind speed is a 2-minute average. Gusts often occur
because with heavy precip, higher momentum air can be brought down to
the surface, i.e. winds reach the surface via more than just mixing, but
unless they persist for about 2-minutes they won't verify. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Really</i> read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)</a>. Those forecasters are experts in the intricacies of forecasting for Des Moines.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br />
<span> <b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
</span>
<br />
</span><ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dmx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Des Moines. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KDSM.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Des Moines, IA WFO forecast discussion</a> for KDSM.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span><br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
</span>
<br />
</span><ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages. </span></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span><br /></span>
<span><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
</span>
<br />
</span><ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span>
<b> </b></span><br />
<span><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
</span>
<br />
</span><ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC (formerly known as HPC)</a> show? </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (if no local option then try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">SPC's SREF page</a>))</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span><br /></span>
<span>I don't know much about Des Moines except <span style="font-size: small;">for what's talked about during election time<span style="font-size: small;">, but hopefully that won't be a hindering <span style="font-size: small;">ability <span style="font-size: small;">to forecast for KDSM<span style="font-size: small;">. This is the last WxChallenge city before the tournament begins which only counts for tho<span style="font-size: small;">se who qualify<span style="font-size: small;"> </span>but everyone is invited to participate<span style="font-size: small;">,</span> so let's go out with a bang this year! <span style="font-size: small;">Go <span style="font-size: small;">T<span style="font-size: small;">eam SBU!!</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-20278241625688722432013-03-11T06:26:00.003-07:002013-03-11T10:34:37.969-07:00City #9: Duluth, MN (KDLH)The WxChallenge moves on from Newark, NJ to <b>Duluth, MN</b>. We are forecasting for Duluth (KDLH) from 11 March - 21 March for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06 UTC which translates to 1 AM CDT if you are looking at <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dlh/" target="_blank">NWS Duluth, MN</a>. Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC which is 8 PM local time (note the time change due to Daylight Savings Time beginning).<br />
<br />
Duluth is located in Eastern Minnesota on the shore of Lake Superior. Now one might think that since it is located on a Great Lake that it is prone to lake effect. While this is true, there is another subtlety about Duluth. According to its <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duluth,_Minnesota" target="_blank">Wikipedia page</a>, it is the "San Francisco of the Mid-West" due to the proximity to a body of water and <b><i>sloping terrain</i></b>. So we have a combination of lake-effect and topographical influences to worry about given the right flow setup as I'll discuss later! That's pretty interesting, in my opinion. Taking this into account and stalking the airport (KDLH WMO ID = <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KDLH" target="_blank">72745</a>) we see that the portion of the city that borders the Lake is around 185 meters high, however KDLH is located to the northwest of the shore of Superior ( ~10 km away) and is located at an elevation of <b><i>435 meters</i></b>. <br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=kdlh&aq=&sll=46.840937,-91.927414&sspn=0.25175,0.676346&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=kdlh&z=14&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=kdlh&aq=&sll=46.840937,-91.927414&sspn=0.25175,0.676346&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=kdlh&z=14&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<br />
<br />
Given the orientation of the lake (southwest -> northeast) near the city and the fact that the land abruptly slopes up in elevation at the shore, upslope lake-effect or lake-enhanced precipitation may occur with <i><b>easterly or northeasterly flow</b></i> from synoptic-scale systems passing to the south and east. I wanted to find out the temperature of the lake, via the <a href="http://data.glos.us/obs/" target="_blank">Great Lakes Observing System</a> but the data are not available either due to the buoys being taken out for the winter or the lake froze over. Anyone have any clue which hypothesis is correct? <br />
<br />
<b>Large-scale Pattern:</b>
<br />
A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a>
according to the GFS shows that a trough will remain in place for the majority of the first forecast day, with a shortwave embedded within the flow towards the end of this week. This trough should persist until next week with generally dry and chilly air being advected by the wind from Canada. Next week a ridge builds out ahead of a developing cyclone lee of the Rockies which may allow for some above-average temperatures. This is all just from glancing at one run of one deterministic model so take it with a grain of salt... or the whole salt shaker depending on your outlook on life. <br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Duluth, MN (KDLH):</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Look at <i>more than one deterministic model</i>, especially <a href="http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/" target="_blank">side-by-side comparisons</a>, <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=comparemodels&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">toggling between models</a> (Mode: Clickable Map), or even better- ensembles (<a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html" target="_blank">SREF/GEFS Plumes</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Efxg1/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF Maps</a>, <a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/enscompare/" target="_blank">GEFS Maps</a>).</li>
<li>WxChallenge's wind forecast is for <i>sustained</i>, not gusts. Instead of just looking at plan-view maps at or near the surface, try taking a look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast soundings</a>.
The measured wind speed is a 2-minute average. Gusts often occur
because with heavy precip, higher momentum air can be brought down to
the surface, i.e. winds reach the surface via more than just mixing, but
unless they persist for about 2-minutes they won't verify. </li>
<li>Upslope lake-enhancement of precip may occur given easterly or northeasterly flow, the <a href="http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/" target="_blank">High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)</a> is run out only for 15 hours from the initialization time, but they do have a "Great Lakes" domain option if you wanted to take a look at a high-resolution product if you had some questions about the very near-term part of your forecast. </li>
<li>Really read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DLH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)</a>. Those forecasters are experts in the intricacies of forecasting for Duluth.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> <b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dlh&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Duluth. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KDLH.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DLH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Duluth, MN WFO forecast discussion</a> for KDLH.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">WPC (formerly known as HPC)</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (if no local option then try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">SPC's SREF page</a>))</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">I don't know much about Duluth <span style="font-size: small;">except for <span style="font-size: small;">the fact <span style="font-size: small;">that </span>Bob Dylan was born there. So<span style="font-size: small;"> how do we <span style="font-size: small;">successfully forecast for Duluth? The answer, my friend, is (quite literally) blowin' in the wind. I<span style="font-size: small;">f <span style="font-size: small;">you didn't get that, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUX9IcSzHX0" target="_blank">culture yourself</a>. </span></span></span></span></span></span>Go Team SBU!!</span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-16841300488320350882013-02-25T06:40:00.001-08:002013-03-10T18:56:29.665-07:00City #8: Newark, NJ (KEWR)The WxChallenge moves on to a city where we all have the chance to shine- <b>Newark, NJ</b>. This is as close as we get to forecasting for near SBU so enjoy it! At least we can rely on the expertise of our friends at our local WFO. We are
forecasting for Newark, NJ
(KEWR) from 25 February - 7 March for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06
UTC which translates to 1 AM EST if you
are
looking at <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/" target="_blank">NWS New York</a>. Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC which is 7 PM local time.<br />
<br />
I'm not going to spend too much time describing Newark because (a) it is so close, (b) you may have flown out of it before, and (c) very similar weather should be expected for there as for us so there is nothing varying conceptually. However, if you do have any questions please do not hesitate to comment on this post or email me.<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&ie=UTF8&q=kewr&fb=1&gl=us&hq=kewr&cid=0,0,12966905903765254790&t=h&z=16&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&ie=UTF8&q=kewr&fb=1&gl=us&hq=kewr&cid=0,0,12966905903765254790&t=h&z=16&iwloc=A&source=embed" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<br />
<br />
KEWR is just south of the center of Newark, NJ and just west of Jersey City which is just west of Manhattan. Stalking the airport, we see that it is located close to Newark Bay. So we are dealing with an environment almost identical to ours. I think that forecasting for KEWR will be challenging in the same ways that it is challenging for us especially with the fact that precip depends on track and intensity of cyclones and we look to have an active, progressive pattern on our hands for our first week of forecasting.<br />
<br />
<b>Large-scale Pattern:</b>
<br />
Just like it will be a challenging forecast for us, so too will it be for Newark. A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a> according to the GFS shows that after today's ridge moves through, a trough sets up across the Eastern US bringing unsettled weather with each shortwave disturbance that forms. You can see this nicely by looking at a plot of the <a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/PV2/gfs_one/dt_theta_NA_large.html" target="_blank">dynamic tropopause on the 2 PVU surface </a>which shows the trough persisting for this entire first week of forecasting with the low-level vorticity plotted showing the GFS forecast for disturbances that, given enough moisture, may cause some precip. Another way of looking for forcing for ascent is to isolate the <a href="http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/tomjr/files/realtime/qg_diag/Qvect700-NorAmer/res.html" target="_blank">Q-vector convergence from the QG-Omega equation</a>. Warm colors represent Q-vector convergence and Tuesday night's system stands out and then there is some weak forcing present other times during the week. <i>So we've got a strong system to deal with Tuesday-Wednesday and general troughiness for the rest of the week. </i><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Newark, NJ (KEWR) aka Home Sweet Home-ish:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Look at <i>more than one deterministic model</i>, especially <a href="http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/" target="_blank">side-by-side comparisons</a>, <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=comparemodels&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">toggling between models</a> (Mode: Clickable Map), or even better- ensembles (<a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html" target="_blank">SREF/GEFS Plumes</a>, <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF Maps</a>, <a href="http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/enscompare/" target="_blank">GEFS Maps</a>).</li>
<li>WxChallenge's wind forecast is for <i>sustained</i>, not gusts. Instead of just looking at plan-view maps at or near the surface, try taking a look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast soundings</a>. The measured wind speed is a 2-minute average. Gusts often occur because with heavy precip, higher momentum air can be brought down to the surface, i.e. winds reach the surface via more than just mixing, but unless they persist for about 2-minutes they won't verify. </li>
<li>Really read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off" target="_blank">NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)</a>. Some of you may even know the forecaster who wrote the short term section.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> <b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Newark. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for K<span style="font-size: small;">EWR</span>.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off" target="_blank">New York, NY WFO forecast discussion</a> for KEWR.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (if no local option then try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">SPC's SREF page</a>))</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Alright guys<span style="font-size: small;">-<span style="font-size: small;"> Team SBU has a distinct advantage here due to us being a stone's throw away from the <span style="font-size: small;">city! <span style="font-size: small;">We know <span style="font-size: small;">and live in this environment<span style="font-size: small;">, however, Mother Nature is a tricky lady and threw a complicated pattern at us. We can handle it, </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=New%20Jersey%20accent" target="_blank">Fuh-gedda-boud-dit</a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=New%20Jersey%20accent" target="_blank">!</a> </span></span></span>Go <span style="font-size: small;">Team SBU!!</span></span></span></span></span></span> Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-39896965322648413932013-02-11T07:07:00.001-08:002013-02-11T07:07:37.417-08:00City #7: Burbank, CA (KBUR)The WxChallenge moves on from Austin,TX to a city with a bit less weather. After all of the excitement we experienced personally with "Nemo" maybe forecasting for Southern California can be a way to relax. City #7 is the second city for the spring 2013 semester. We are forecasting for Burbank , CA
(KBUR) from 11 February- 21 February for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06
UTC which translates to 10 PM local Burbank time (PST = UTC - 8) if you are
looking at <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/" target="_blank">NWS Las Angeles/Oxnard </a>. Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC which is 7 PM local Long Island time (EST). <br />
<br />
Burbank, CA is located just north of Los Angeles and northwest of Hollywood. Imagine having to actually forecast for that area... I wouldn't want to make movie stars cranky, although there isn't much weather so perhaps it is a low-risk forecasting gig. Sorry, I digress. <br />
<br />
To familiarize ourselves with the area, it is time to stalk the airport. <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KBUR" target="_blank">KBUR</a>
is Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena or Bob Hope International Airport.
Burbank is located on the eastern edge of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Fernando_Valley" target="_blank">San Fernando Valley</a>. Since it is in a valley, it is surrounded by higher terrain known as the Transverse Range. KBUR is close to the base of the Verdugo Mountains (highest peak = 953 m) to its northeast with the San Gabriel Mountains (highest peak = 3069) farther northeast past the Verdugos. The Santa Monica Mountains (highest peak = 948 m) and Chalk Hills (highest peak = 331 m) are close to the south of the city. A bit west of KBUR is the Simi Hills (highest peak = 652 m). Further from KBUR lies the Santa Susana Mountains (highest peak = 1142 m) to its northwest. Scroll around on the provided Google Map to get a better feel for the terrain.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=kbur&aq=&sll=40.947129,-72.670645&sspn=0.069497,0.169086&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=kbur&z=14&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=kbur&aq=&sll=40.947129,-72.670645&sspn=0.069497,0.169086&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=kbur&z=14&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<br />
<br />
So why am I pointing out each small cluster of hills and mountains? Because when there are no synoptic players around to drive the winds, mountain wind systems prevail and will influence temperatures, especially when there is an absence of cloud and the valley and mountain are exposed to full solar insolation and nighttime radiative cooling.<br />
<br />
To simplify things, I'll explain things in an idealized sense. Let's say you have a mountain peak and it slopes down into a valley. During the day, the mountain top receives more solar insolation because it is higher so the solar radiation isn't depleted by having to travel through that extra bit of atmosphere like it has to to reach the valley surface. So because the mountain top is receiving extra energy, its surface warms, air above the surface warms and rises freely because the environment at that elevation is cooler than that of the valley due to elevation differences alone. So because air is rising at the top, air rushes in from the valley to fill it. This phenomenon is known as anabatic wind or upslope-flow and occurs during the daytime on calm, sunny days. A similar phenomenon occurs at night, called the katabatic wind or down-slope/drainage flow. Similar physical principles are involved in the fact that at night the top of the mountain will radiatively cool, become more dense and a resulting downslope flow will develop. As the air descends, it will warm.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, KBUR is nestled within 2-50 km of a few hill/mountain ranges of varying altitudes. And these are coastal mountains with the Pacific lying less than 100 km to the southwest. So to summarize my thoughts on what to look for--<br />
<ul>
<li>Downslope warming from northeasterly flow. </li>
<li>Relatively heavy precip if system brings moist, southeasterly flow (i.e. ahead of a strong low that happens to be anomalously lower in latitude than normal... doubtful for February but we'll see...)</li>
<li>Dry conditions from any offshore flow pattern</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Large-scale Pattern:</b>
<br />
A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a> according to the GFS shows that a ridging pattern will persist throughout our first week of forecasting for KBUR. High pressure dominates with no threat of precip. Easterly and Northeasterly flow could allow for high temps to get a littler higher due to downsloping. <br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> <b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ewx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Burbank. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KBUR.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Las Angeles WFO forecast discussion</a> for KBUR.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Downslope flow = warm<span style="font-size: small;">ing through adiabatic descent<span style="font-size: small;">!</span></span> </span></span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, easterly/northeasterl<span style="font-size: small;">ies can have localized warming <span style="font-size: small;">effects at</span></span> Burbank. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b> </b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (no local option so try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">SPC's SREF page</a>))</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Alright guys<span style="font-size: small;">- time to <span style="font-size: small;">blast some Katy Perr<span style="font-size: small;">y<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <span style="font-size: small;">and </span></span>Beach Boys</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">, grab your stunna-shades<span style="font-size: small;"> (are those even still a thing?)<span style="font-size: small;">, an<span style="font-size: small;">d demand so<span style="font-size: small;">meone to fetch you<span style="font-size: small;"> two</span> <span style="font-size: small;">Fiji Water<span style="font-size: small;">s (one for your tea-cup chihuahua) and fore<span style="font-size: small;">cast for Burbank, CA! <span style="font-size: small;">Go <span style="font-size: small;">Team SBU!</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-79431093573853304892013-01-28T06:50:00.004-08:002013-01-28T06:50:38.981-08:00City #6: Austin, TX (KAUS)Welcome back to forecasting for the WxChallenge! City #6 is the first city for the spring 2013 semester. We are forecasting for Austin, TX (KAUS) from 28 January - 7 February for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06 UTC which translates to midnight local Austin time (CST) if you are looking at <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/" target="_blank">NWS Austin/San Antonio forecast products</a>. Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC which is 7 PM local Long Island time (EST). <br />
<br />
Austin was the location for the most recent <a href="http://annual.ametsoc.org/2013/?CFID=654255&CFTOKEN=42451625" target="_blank">Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society</a> earlier this month. Attending the AMS Annual Meeting or just the <a href="http://annual.ametsoc.org/2013/index.cfm/programs-and-events/conferences-and-symposia/12th-annual-ams-student-conference-expanding-weather-and-climate-predictiontaking-geosciences-to-the-next-level/" target="_blank">Student Conference</a> is an amazing chance to see what the field of meteorology is really all about. If you are not a <a href="https://www.ametsoc.org/newmember/index.cfm" target="_blank">student member of the society</a>, please consider doing so; a yearly fee of $20 can open up huge <a href="https://www.ametsoc.org/amsstudentinfo/index.html" target="_blank">scholarship, networking, and educational opportunities</a>. Okay, I'm off of my soap box and now you know why the WxChallenge is following their tradition of forecasting for the most recent AMS Annual Meeting city. Back to discussion forecasting.<br />
<br />
Time to stalk the airport. <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KAUS" target="_blank">KAUS</a> is Austin-Bergstrom International Airport with a WMO ID of 74745. Austin, TX is located in south-central Texas, depending on how you slice up that oddly-shaped state, northeast of San Antonio, northwest of Houston, and south of Dallas & Fort Worth.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Austin-Bergstrom+International+Airport,+Austin,+TX&aq=0&oq=austin-bergs&sll=43.621422,-92.989649&sspn=0.016652,0.042272&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=Austin-Bergstrom+International+Airport,+Austin,+TX&z=13&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=Austin-Bergstrom+International+Airport,+Austin,+TX&aq=0&oq=austin-bergs&sll=43.621422,-92.989649&sspn=0.016652,0.042272&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=Austin-Bergstrom+International+Airport,+Austin,+TX&z=13&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;">So it<span style="font-size: small;"> is</span> flat, <span style="font-size: small;">in unimpeded (no real topography) proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, and pretty developed (more urban than not). <span style="font-size: small;">So <span style="font-size: small;">warm, moist air can likely surge up from the Gulf given strong southerly flow. <span style="font-size: small;">We'll <span style="font-size: small;">definitely keep th<span style="font-size: small;">at in mind.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></small><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a>
according to the GFS shows that the first player we will have to worry about is a large, digging upper-level trough causing a surface cyclone to form and strengthen lee of the Rockies. All of the models are showing this as it is in the very near-term. Ahead of this cyclone in the warm sector, there will likely be strong warm air advection off of the Gulf. This warm, moist air should allow for there to be a chance for some heavy rains with the passage of the cold front. Behind the cold front there should be clearer and cooler conditions. The models are showing predominately zonal flow for the remainder of the week. So we are starting Austin off with a bang but then things may be a bit boring. <br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>What to watch out for (IMO):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Amplified flow that allows strong southerly flow ahead of upper-level troughs to advect warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air into central Texas.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think MOS is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures, </span></li>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">i.e. southeasterly winds should be more moist which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime temperature and northeasterly winds will advect drier air which means a lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime temperatures. </span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ewx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Austin. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for <span style="font-size: small;">KAUS</span>.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Austin/San Antonio WFO forecast discussion</a> for KAUS.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, southerlies may bring warmer Gulf air inland to Austin. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
<br />
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look<span style="font-size: small;"> </span>try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">
Alright guys- grab your cowboy hats and boots and try to lasso up some great <span style="font-size: small;">forecasts! If you ever have any questions or want to talk about AMS student op<span style="font-size: small;">portunities please feel free to stop by my office in Challen<span style="font-size: small;">ger 121. <span style="font-size: small;">I have candy. That is all. Good luck with KAUS!</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span><small><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></small>
Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-88418933585055473802013-01-27T10:19:00.000-08:002013-01-27T18:34:17.395-08:00WxChallenge Spring 2013!Welcome back to the WxChallenge discussion site for the SBU team! I hope that you enjoyed your winter break and are ready to get back into the groove of point forecasting for cities across the United States. This semester is special for two reasons...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: small;"><u>(1) We get to vote for the 10th forecasting city!</u></span></b><br />
Isn't that pretty cool? Simply log in and input your top three cities' stations ID with the preceding "K" (or "P" if you are considering some Alaskan cities!) The list of valid stations are found <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/tools/valid_stations.php" target="_blank">here</a>. Voting is done <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/city10_suggest_sites.php" target="_blank">here</a> and must be completed before February 7th! I'm totally voting for KISP, KLGA, and KJFK but that's because I'm in a New York state of mind.<br />
<br />
<u><b>(2) There is a tournament at the end for those who qualify!</b></u><br />
The top 64 forecasters based on their combined fall and spring normalized scores are invited to participate in a tournament forecasting for the final city. The bracket will be posted <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/bracket.php" target="_blank">here</a> and there you can find additional rules about the tournament. Think you have what it takes?? Go for it this semester! Best of luck!<br />
<br />
<u><b>The Challenge</b></u><br />
The contest begins on Monday, January 28th for Austin, Texas (KAUS). Forecasts are due by 00 UTC or 7 PM EST. Here is the schedule for this semester:<br />
<br />
<u><b> </b></u><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 478px;"><tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#5F5F5F"><td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">City</span></td>
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Identifier</span></td>
<td bgcolor="#C5D6E8"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dates</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KAUS/kaus.php">Austin, TX</a></td>
<td>KAUS</td>
<td>January 28 - February 7 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KBUR/kbur.php">Burbank, CA</a></td>
<td>KBUR</td>
<td>February 11 - February 21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KEWR/kewr.php">Newark, NJ</a></td>
<td>KEWR</td>
<td>February 25 - March 7 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KDLH/kdlh.php">Duluth, MN</a></td>
<td>KDLH</td>
<td>March 11 - March 21 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>To Be Determined*</td>
<td>KTBD</td>
<td>March 25 - April 4 <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/city10_suggest_sites.php" target="_blank">(Vote by 2/7!)</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KICT/kict.php">Wichita, KS</a> ** </td>
<td>KICT</td>
<td>April 8 - May 4 </td><td></td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Source: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php</a><br />
<br />
The rules haven't changed at all from the fall semester. We are still forecasting for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06 UTC. For each forecast you must submit a high temperature (F), low
temperature (F), maximum wind speed (kts) and precipitation amount (in).
Note that the wind speed is sustained, not gusts, and the precipitation
amount is the cumulative liquid precipitation- so don't put 12 inches
if you think it will snow a foot!<br />
<br />
For more detailed info and guidelines on the scoring system please see
the <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/info/rules.php" target="_blank">WxChallenge website</a>.
Motivational statement: first and second place forecasters for each
category receive trophies for every city, not just overall or tournament
winners. We got close last semester with a few of our forecasters so let's try to get some trophies this semester!<br />
<br />
Below are a few useful resources however everyone is encouraged to log
onto the Metlab computers and plot model data using nmap2, analyze
soundings with BUFKIT, etc. Thanks for your enthusiasm and good luck--
let's go SBU!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><u><b>Useful Links</b></u></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Submit your forecasts: <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php">http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php</a><u><b> </b></u></span><br />
<br />
<u><b><i>Current Analysis </i></b></u><br />
<br />
<b>-Satellite- </b><br />
<a href="http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=day_night_bm&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20101107.2100.multisat.visir.bckgr.Global_Global_bm.DAYNGT.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15" target="_blank">Global Satellite (NRL)</a><br />
<br />
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">Regional Satellite (RAP/UCAR) </a><br />
<a href="http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/" target="_blank">NASA GOES (ESO)</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/Satellite.html" target="_blank">Satellite (UW-Madison)</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b> -Surface-</b></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://ral.ucar.edu/weather/surface/" target="_blank">Surface Obs (RAP/UCAR)</a><br />
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR (UWyo)</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/thetaq_gif/theta_us_anim.html" target="_blank">Surface Potential Temperature Map (UAlbany) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php" target="_blank">National Radar (NOAA)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)</a> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b>-Upper-levels-</b> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=OBSERVATIONS+AND+ANALYSES&page=OBSERVATIONS+AND+ANALYSES" target="_blank">Upper Air (NCEP)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html" target="_blank">Soundings (UWyoming)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<b>-Tropical & Severe Wx-</b> </div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center (NHC)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/" target="_blank">CIMMS Tropical Cyclones (UWisc-Madison)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">Storm Prediction Center (SPC)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<br />
<u><i><b>Forecasting Resources</b></i></u><br />
<br />
<a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">WxForecaster</a><br />
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/" target="_blank">Twisterdata</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewall.html" target="_blank">PSU E-wall</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE" target="_blank">NCEP Model Page </a><br />
<a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">NSSL WRF Page</a> <br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/" target="_blank">University of Washington Site of Loops</a><br />
<a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (Text)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<br />
<u><i><b>Archived Data</b></i></u><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
</div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl" target="_blank">ESRL Interactive Plotting & Analysis</a><br />
<a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/archive/varchive.shtml" target="_blank">North American Historical Wx Maps (UWashington) </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/" target="_blank">Radar and Satellite (UCAR)</a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/" target="_blank">SPC Storm Reports & Mesoanalyses </a></div>
<div class="style23 style33">
<a href="http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/climatenormals/climatenormals.pl?directive=prod_select2&prodtype=CLIM20&subrnum=" target="_blank">Monthly Climate Normals (NCDC)</a></div>
Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-53690324662733212632012-11-24T16:24:00.000-08:002013-01-21T12:53:33.938-08:00City #5: Syracuse, NY (KSYR)Welcome to the final WxChallenge forecasting city for the Fall 2012 semester!!! We are almost done and then get a well-deserved forecasting vacation over winter break! This city is a lot closer to home. However, the weather is significantly different up in good ol' Syracuse, NY compared with Long Island which just proves that New York is huge and meteorologically diverse. You'll respect that fact once we get forecasting.<br />
<br />
We will be forecasting for Lake-effect-opolis... oh, I mean Syracuse, NY (KSYR) 26 November through 6 December 2012. Forecasts are due by 00 UTC each evening which is still 7 PM local time. We are still forecasting for the 24-hour period 06-06 UTC which is 1 AM - 1 AM EST if you want to look at <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.12&lon=-76.12" target="_blank">NWS Binghamton products</a> (hooray for being in our own timezone!).<br />
<br />
Syracuse, NY is known for its snow and has a reputation as being the snowiest city in the US. KSYR receives 121.2 in (308 cm) of snow on average every year mostly due to lake-effect events and nor'easters. For a few more interesting facts, I recommend checking out the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syracuse,_New_York" target="_blank">Wikipedia page on the city</a>. Syracuse is located in central New York State, straddling I-90, southeast of Lake Ontario (the big, important player), southwest of Lake Oneida (the little guy), and just northeast of most of the Finger Lakes. There is no real topography to worry about; parts of the city are hilly while the rest is mostly flat. The real focus as a forecaster is that warm Great Lake.<br />
<br />
Taking a moment to stalk the airport, KSYR is located on the northern edge of the city (even closer to the lake). The ASOS station ID number is <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KSYR" target="_blank">72519</a>.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=ksyr&aq=&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=4.324243,10.821533&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=ksyr&z=14&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=ksyr&aq=&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=4.324243,10.821533&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=ksyr&z=14&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
Just to review <span style="font-size: small;">what the climate normals are-- cold and snowy. T<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">he average temperature for the entire month of December is <span style="font-size: small;">30 F with an average snowfall amount of about <span style="font-size: small;">35 inches. More climate data and records can be found <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/climate/daily_enh.php?site=syr&month=dec" target="_blank">here</a>. </span></span> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Before talking about forecasting tips, I think it is a good idea to have a review of lake-effect<span style="font-size: small;"> precipitation. I'm not sure if everyone has <span style="font-size: small;">had this as part of their coursework<span style="font-size: small;"> or not. <span style="font-size: small;">It's <span style="font-size: small;">a fun concept to review, anyway!</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></small><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>Lake-effect Review </b></u></span><br />
<br />
<u><b>In a nutshell</b></u><br />
<ul>
<li>Cold, dry air blows over a warm lake and destabilizes due to fluxes of heat and moisture into the air and rises, forms clouds and can precipitate. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><u>Ingredients</u></b><br />
<ul>
<li><b> Cold, dry air and a warm, ice-free lake</b></li>
<ul>
<li><b>Air:</b> the colder, the better for fueling lake-effect storms. If you have a polar air mass with temperatures around -5 C to -25 C (23 F to -13 F) then if you warm the air below it, it will rise until it stabilizes, or cools during ascent until it is equal to the temperature of the environment. So the cooler that is, the more the parcel will rise because the environmental lapse rate is greater than the moist adiabatic lapse rate (7 C/km). <b>For forecasting, the 850 mb temperature is used to represent the air temperature</b><i><b>. </b></i></li>
<li><b>Lake surface:</b> the warmer, the better for fueling lake-effect storms. The Great Lakes remain mostly ice-free throughout the winter which will allow for fluxes of heat and moisture to occur from the lake surface to the adjacent air. Especially since it is only late November, the lakes are open. The <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/laketemps/laketemps.php" target="_blank">current temperature of Lake Ontario</a> is about 48 F. </li>
<li><b>Air-Lake Temperature Difference: </b>Previous studies have shown that a difference in lake surface temperature and the 850 mb temperature should be at least 10 C for synoptically-forced events (e.g. there's a shortwave trough passing through) or<b> at least 12 C in general</b>. </li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>A long lake parallel to the wind</b> </li>
<ul>
<li>This is known as the lake having a large "fetch". We are trying to get fetch to happen, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sir_24duiF4" target="_blank">regardless of what Regina wants</a>. Anyway, the longer the wind blows over the warm lake, the more the air can warm up and by the relationship of the saturation vapor pressure, more water vapor can evaporate into it so it will be warmer and moister and rise more and be more likely to precipitate. So air residence time over the lake is important which depends on the near-surface wind direction.</li>
<li>More on fetch and lake-effect bands</li>
<ul>
<li>Lakes usually aren't perfectly circular and tend to have a long axis and a short axis, just like Lake Ontario. Lake-effect bands tend to be stronger when the wind is parallel to the longer axis with a larger fetch, but bands can still form and precipitate heavily when oriented with the shorter axis of the lake. </li>
<li>Bands come in a variety of flavors. There's shore-parallel bands, wind-parallel bands, over-lake bands, vortices, etc. </li>
<ul>
<li>Bottom line: <b>bands will form if most of the ingredients are present and not only if the wind is exactly parallel to the long-axis of the lake. </b></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Low directional wind shear</b></li>
<ul>
<li><b> </b>Lake-effect is shallow, only reaching 2-3 km. But too much directional shear (change in direction of the wind with height) can weaken or disorganize them as they attempt to propagate from the lake where they originate. </li>
<ul>
<li>Forecasters look at the <b>700 mb wind as the "steering wind"</b> that tells where the bands will propagate. Some studies have shown that if there is a <b>directional shear between the boundary layer (10 m wind) and 700 mb</b> <b>wind </b>of less than 30 degrees then the band will propagate in the direction of that wind.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<u><b>The lake-effect process in an expanded nutshell</b></u><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iGKDzPkSHoI/ULFUp85R_mI/AAAAAAAAAK0/BkTcIuJA5xg/s1600/lake+effect+diagram.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="337" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iGKDzPkSHoI/ULFUp85R_mI/AAAAAAAAAK0/BkTcIuJA5xg/s640/lake+effect+diagram.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
A figure from the lake-effect chapter from Severe and Hazardous Weather: An Introduction to Meteorology by Rauber, Walsh, and Charlevoix.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<ul>
<li>Cold, dry air blows from the land to over the lake. It experiences a decrease in friction over the smooth lake surface and accelerates. This creates a divergence at the surface so air sinks from above to fill in the void, hence why the upwind shore of the lake usually has clear skies. The lake exchanges heat and moisture with the air, warming up the air and adding moisture. The air rises due to being positively buoyant and forms clouds, but the most clouds are formed when the air decelerates and converges with the shore. Got it now? Awesome. </li>
</ul>
<u><b>Forecasting for lake-effect snow</b></u><br />
<ul>
<li> <b>Extra Tools</b></li>
</ul>
<ul><ul>
<li>BUFKIT on the metlab computers</li>
<ul>
<li>You can also retrieve text data <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/bufkit/prof.html" target="_blank">here</a> of forecast soundings that are displayed in BUFKIT. It's a little hard to read, but the data for each sounding every hour is there for NAM, GFS, RUC-- just click on Syracuse.</li>
</ul>
<li><a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/" target="_blank">SPC Mesoanalysis </a></li>
<ul>
<li>They actually have lake effect parameters you can plot under Winter Weather --> Lake Effect Snow 1 and Lake Effect Snow 2 but data is not available for future forecast times.</li>
<ul>
<li><b>Lake Effect Snow 1</b> plots boundary layer RH (because you want it to be moist over the lake), and the sfc-850 mb temperature difference (can take as a first order analysis if you don't have the<i> lake temperature</i>, <a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/laketemps/laketemps.php" target="_blank">but oh wait you do</a>!)</li>
<li><b>Lake Effect Snow 2</b> plots the boundary layer wind in barbs and streamlines (sense of wind direction and speed) as well as convergence (look for a maximum convergence on the shore for more uplift for the band). </li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Review of Ingredients</b></li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h6jUVxaYE5Y/ULFgC7SWhZI/AAAAAAAAALE/uf8fhfRQzMk/s1600/Niziol+Table+1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="343" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h6jUVxaYE5Y/ULFgC7SWhZI/AAAAAAAAALE/uf8fhfRQzMk/s400/Niziol+Table+1.png" width="400" /> </a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Table 1 from Niziol et al. 1995. </div>
<ul><ul>
<li> Due to KSYR being located where it is,<b> northwesterly flow off of Ontario</b> with low directional shear should result in a lake-effect band reaching the ASOS station. The synoptic setting for this is a <b>high pressure system to the west and a low pressure system to the east</b>. </li>
</ul>
</ul>
<u><b>Resources</b></u><br />
<ul>
<li>An amazing study by <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281995%29010%3C0061%3AWWFTTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2" target="_blank">Niziol et al. 1995</a> entitled "Winter Weather Forecasting throughout the Eastern United States. Part IV: Lake Effect Snow" provides a climatology of lake-effect snowstorms, a thorough overview of the processes involved in band formation, and forecasting tips. (If you can't access it via that link, search through <a href="http://apps.webofknowledge.com.libproxy.cc.stonybrook.edu/WOS_GeneralSearch_input.do?product=WOS&search_mode=GeneralSearch&SID=4DPFCggnPl57d18i7ed&preferencesSaved=" target="_blank">Web of Science</a> or e-mail me for it.)</li>
<li>Most synoptic or mesoscale textbooks include a chapter on lake effect. I have a few in my office (Challenger 121) if you would like to borrow one. I swear I don't bite and I even have a <b>stash of holiday candy </b>to share in addition to weather books. A basic textbook I used to first learn about lake effect is Severe and Hazardous Weather: An Introduction to Meteorology by Rauber, Walsh, and Charlevoix. </li>
<li>If you have time, make a free account (if you haven't done so already) and go through a <a href="https://www.meted.ucar.edu/sign_in.php?go_back_to=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.meted.ucar.edu%252Fnorlat%252Fsnow%252Flake_effect%252F#" target="_blank">MetEd module on lake effect</a>. </li>
</ul>
Okay, now that you are all experts in lake-effect precipitation processes we can return to our originally scheduled programming!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b><br /><br />A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a>
according to the GFS shows that <span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">a shortwave trough will help form a coastal low and the associated precipitation is not expected to reach KSYR. However, the pattern is conducive to west-northwesterly winds in the early period so before the drier air mass behind the trough moves in, there is a threat of lake-effect snow showers. </span><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tyx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future<span style="font-size: small;">. To do this qu<span style="font-size: small;">ick<span style="font-size: small;">ly, check out the <a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KSYR/ksyr.php" target="_blank">WxCha</a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KSYR/ksyr.php" target="_blank">ll</a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KSYR/ksyr.php" target="_blank">enge page for </a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/12-13/KSYR/ksyr.php" target="_blank">Syracuse</a>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Syracuse. Beware of high pressure to the west and low p<span style="font-size: small;">ressure to the<span style="font-size: small;"> east inducing northwesterly flow over Lake Ontario!</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KSYR.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off" target="_blank">Binghamton, NY WFO forecast discussion</a> for KSYR.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog<span style="font-size: small;">. Cloud cover <span style="font-size: small;">is <span style="font-size: small;">more of an issue for Syracuse and I bet you are sick of fog from forecasting for Astoria.</span></span></span> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, northwesterly flow may induce lake-<span style="font-size: small;">effe<span style="font-size: small;">ct bands that could reac<span style="font-size: small;">h Syracuse.</span></span></span></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a><span style="font-size: small;">)</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. </span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Ok<span style="font-size: small;">ie dokie, that's all I have to s<span style="font-size: small;">ay <span style="font-size: small;">as we begin forecasting for Syracuse. It's nice to be back in our home<span style="font-size: small;"> state but the whole threat of lake-effect <span style="font-size: small;">has me nervous! If any of you have an<span style="font-size: small;">y questions or comments, please e-mail me or comment on this post. I hope you all enjoy <span style="font-size: small;">forecasting for this exciting city and then enjoy your winter breaks<span style="font-size: small;">! Take care and <span style="font-size: small;">b</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>est of luck
forecasting! Go SBU! <span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-85438844633472046202012-11-05T06:29:00.002-08:002012-11-24T16:09:50.846-08:00City #4: Astoria, OR (KAST)<b>*** The WxChallenge changed the city from North Bend to Astoria. We are forecasting for Astoria (KAST) <u>not</u> North Bend (KOTH). ***</b><br />
<br />
Hi guys! Today not only do we resume classes after missing a week due to Sandy but we begin forecasting for a new city for the WxChallenge. Thank you all for your cooperation in submitting forecasts despite region-wide power losses. Our team score didn't suffer... too... badly... *sigh* If you are still without power like I am, please do your best to come to campus and use the Metlab computers or your personal laptop to forecast for Astoria. Selecting "Guidance" for multiple days results in 5 error points for each additional day it is used (you get one freebie) so I'd rather not have us accrue error points again. <br />
<br />
We will be forecasting for Astoria, OR today through November 15th. Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC but since we've changed the clocks <b>forecasts are now due by 7:00 PM local time</b>! We are still forecasting for the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC for Astoria which is 10 PM - 10 PM local or PST if you are looking at forecasts from the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.1557713&lon=-123.8819218&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Astoria%20Regional%20Airport%20%28AST%29%2C%201110%20SE%20Flight%20Line%20Dr%2C%20Warrenton%2C%20OR%2097146%2C%20USA" target="_blank">NWS Portland Office</a> for Astoria Regional Airport.<br />
<br />
Astoria is found in northwest Oregon and is situated right on Youngs Bay which is off of the Columbia River that empties into the Pacific Ocean. So needless say this is a marine environment. And during this time of year... it's likely going to be wet.<br />
<br />
Taking a moment to stalk the airport where the <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KAST" target="_blank">ASOS station (Station ID= 72791)</a> is, we can see that it is located right on the water. In addition to the marine environment, there is significant topography in the region like Mt. St. Helens that is ~120 km due east and some coastal mountains to the south-southeast and northeast. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=KAST&aq=&sll=37.6,-95.665&sspn=53.265092,114.873047&ie=UTF8&hq=KAST&t=h&z=15&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=KAST&aq=&sll=37.6,-95.665&sspn=53.265092,114.873047&ie=UTF8&hq=KAST&t=h&z=15&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;">Just to briefly mention what climate normals are, for this time of year it's usually pretty gray (yes that's a climate parameter) with a small diurnal temperature range with highs in the mid-to-upper 50's and lows in the mid-40s. Usually during this time of year, the region starts getting slammed with pacific extratropical cyclones. Let's see how things shape up for our forecasts.</span></small><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a>
according to the GFS shows that a trough is expected to "slam into" and "dig deeper" (I prefer to say it with flair instead of "progress into the region" and "i<span style="font-family: inherit;">ncrease in </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">amplitude</span>") this week. That should bring a larger chance of rain and slightly cooler temperatures to Astoria.</span><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>What to watch out for (IMO):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Upper-level lows coming from the Pacific and Gulf of Alaska.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Fog is seen to develop overnight if the winds are light enough and no significant synoptic system is affecting the area so early evening dew points right before you submit your forecast may be a good guidance for a nighttime low. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=rtx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php?pageloc=metar" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Astoria. Beware of cold fronts during this time of year.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KAST.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Portland, OR WFO forecast discussion</a> for KAST.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages, especially cold fronts for Astoria.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, westerlies may bring warmer oceanic air inland to Astoria. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a> or for a zoomed-in national look because the PSU e-wall doesn't have a zoomed-in Pacific Northwest option, try <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">Alright guys- grab your solar lamps and cups of hot tea (or Starbucks since we are sort of close to Seattle<span style="font-size: small;">) </span>and get to forecasting! Hopefully we can all forecast fully for Astoria without some devastating storm knocking out our power... *cough* *cough* Nor'easter *cough* *cough* If you have any questions or want to
discuss anything, feel free to comment on this post. Best of luck
forecasting! Go SBU! </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span>
Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-12271774588018196992012-10-22T06:26:00.002-07:002012-10-22T14:40:24.404-07:00City #3: Louisville, KY (KSDF)I don't know about you, but I couldn't be happier to be moving on from forecasting for KBIL. The <a href="http://www.microclimates.org/forecast/wxchallenge.html" target="_blank">USL model</a>, NAM and NWS forecasts had the least errors for KBIL but still rarely verified within 1 degree for temperature or 1 kt for wind. I guess it's just another example that forecasting for a point with discrete values is exhausting. Oh well, we all must soldier on! Let's travel southeast to KSDF! <br />
<br />
Louisville, Kentucky is located in north-central Kentucky near the Kentucky-Indiana border which is the Ohio River. We are forecasting for <a href="http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KSDF" target="_blank">KSDF</a> or Strandiford Field, KY aka Louisville International Airport (<i>NOT </i>KLOU or Bowman Field!) found in the map below. The station ID is 72423. The city is located in a flood plain of the Ohio River with slightly higher terrain around, especially to the east but still less than 1,000 ft AMSL. I think that forecasting for this area will be determined by local radiative forcing for high and low temperatures and advection of warmer air from the south, cooler air from the north and storms from the west. But, we shall see.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=STANDIFORD+FIELD,+KY,+United+States+ksdf&aq=&sll=38.180416,-85.7234&sspn=0.017407,0.042272&ie=UTF8&hq=STANDIFORD+FIELD,+KY,+United+States+ksdf&hnear=&radius=15000&t=m&cid=3969634856385905086&ll=38.185847,-85.742111&spn=0.094449,0.145912&z=12&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=STANDIFORD+FIELD,+KY,+United+States+ksdf&aq=&sll=38.180416,-85.7234&sspn=0.017407,0.042272&ie=UTF8&hq=STANDIFORD+FIELD,+KY,+United+States+ksdf&hnear=&radius=15000&t=m&cid=3969634856385905086&ll=38.185847,-85.742111&spn=0.094449,0.145912&z=12&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">We are forecasting for KSDF from 22 October - 1 November for the 24-h period from 06 UTC - 06 UTC. 06 UTC is 2 AM EDT or local time. We are finally forecasting for our own time zone! The <a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/" target="_blank">local NWS WFO</a> is located conveniently in Louisville. I really, really like their formatting of their <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">area forecast discussion</a> so I think you will too. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">*<b>PSA</b> (Public Service Announcement): The local 88-D is getting an upgrade so for radar data, you'll have to check out the <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php" target="_blank">mosaic </a>or surrounding radars (<a href="http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dualpol/index.php?wfo=lmk" target="_blank">more information</a>).* </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Just to briefly say what the <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lmk" target="_blank">climate normals</a> are-- high temps are usually in the upper 60's and low temps are usually in the upper 40's in late October. However, I don't want to harp on climate normals too much because it looks like we will be dealing with an amplified and slightly anomalous pattern early on. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern:</b></span><br />
<br />
Holy ridge, Batman! <span style="font-size: small;">A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a> according to the GFS shows that the ridge looks to build for almost the entirety of this week. There may be a shortwave embedded in the flow that may provide some lift but with the question of moisture availability, I doubt there will be measurable precip until the ridge moves out and the trough brings a system on Friday. After that system, the GFS is showing troughiness (yes that's a word... now) in the Louisville region and then more zonal flow. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>What to watch out for (IMO):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Cloud cover affecting daytime highs and nighttime lows.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Large diurnal swings in temperature especially with <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f072wbg.gif" target="_blank">anomalous heights</a> over the region- don't be afraid if you have a couple more degrees added to your temperature range than you are comfortable with.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Moisture availability with weak forcing.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Wind direction should be very important for the advection of warm, moist air from the south and cooler, dry air from the north. Pretty standard but still pay attention. <br />
</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php?pageloc=metar" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Louisville.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KSDF.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Louisville, KY WFO forecast discussion</a> for KSDF.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b>
</span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes or try to spot it on the <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php" target="_blank">regional radar</a> and know whether to take it into consideration for certain days with weak synoptic flow.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b>
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">KSDF will likely be a target for convection along cold fronts that move through after warm, moist air was advected from the south out ahead of the system. At least that's what one would expect if the ridging pattern we are starting with should ever break!</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">Alright guys- grab your fried chicken and get to forecasting! Hopefully Louisville is a little bit better to forecast for than Billings was. If you have any questions or want to discuss anything, feel free to comment on this post. Best of luck forecasting! Go SBU! </span>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-56704199059491859802012-10-08T06:55:00.000-07:002012-10-22T06:27:02.054-07:00City #2: Billings, MT (KBIL)We are done forecasting for Pensacola and now must divert our attention roughly 2,000 miles northwest to Billings, MT. Has anyone ever been to Yellowstone? If so- I'm jealous. We will be forecasting for this city from October 8-18. Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC or 8 PM local time. We are forecasting for the 24-h period 06-06 UTC which is 12 AM - 12 AM local time (MDT) for those looking at the <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/byz/" target="_blank">Billings NWS WFO page</a>.<br />
<br />
Alright, time to stalk the airport and surrounding area. The airport and city lies in the Yellowstone Valley at an elevation of roughly 1000 m AMSL. Surrounding the city are clusters of 100-500 m high hills with the closest being to the north and southeast. <br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=kbil&aq=&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=4.162901,10.821533&ie=UTF8&hq=kbil&t=h&cid=16780105108638076756&hnear=&ll=45.802657,-108.535652&spn=0.020942,0.036478&z=14&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=kbil&aq=&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=4.162901,10.821533&ie=UTF8&hq=kbil&t=h&cid=16780105108638076756&hnear=&ll=45.802657,-108.535652&spn=0.020942,0.036478&z=14&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
So we have some terrain slight that may influence our forecasts. Mental note made.<br />
<br />
Now just to get an idea of what to expect, time to look at some <a href="http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/byz/climate/BILNormal.pdf" target="_blank">monthly climate data</a>. Remember, this is just to get a crude idea about what is the average daily temperature range but there are always exceptions. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><u><b>Month</b> <b>Daily Max</b> <b> Daily Min</b></u><br /><b>Sep</b> 73.1 47.5</span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>Oct </b> 59.4 37.1 </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Now to move onto what's going on weather-wise.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Large-scale Pattern: </b><br />
<br />
A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a> according to the GFS shows a persistent trough over the region. Looking at some <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">model output</a> for other mass fields shows that weak surface fronts (cold fronts) may provide forcing for ascent in the near-term for some rain showers and even snow showers. Pay attention to the wind direction as the northerlies may usher in cold, Canadian air. <br />
<br />
<b>What to watch out for (IMO):</b></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Shortwaves traveling along the mean trough that can provide forcing for precipitation.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Weak fronts if the models pick up on them which would impact temperatures.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Wind direction should be very important given the topography, mainly westerly or zonal winds <i>should</i> result in warmer, drier conditions. <br />
</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=blx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php?pageloc=metar" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>,
for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface
pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb,
moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure
at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Billings.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KBIL.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BYZ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Billings, MT WFO forecast discussion</a> for KBIL.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar
radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Frontal passages can affect your
temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such
frontal passages.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">With KBIL, terrain may be an issue. If the winds are downslope or likely westerly and northerwesterly given the location of the airport, then there may be some subsidence warming. Recall that as air falls adiabatically, it warms.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast
value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed
(WSP) in knots.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Look through <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes or try to spot it on the <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=blx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">Billings, MT radar.</a> </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Snow?! Looks like it at KBIL! We forecast for the liquid equivalent of precipitation, or exactly what the models output in inches. So if there is a forecast for 6 inches of snow, do not put "6.00" or you will be filled with regret and sadness. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a>)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>What if I'm afraid I'll miss a forecast?</b></span>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"> When making a forecast for the first day only, always select the
"Guidance" option for the "Optional Forecast for Future Days" days just
in case you forget.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">It is advisable that you enter your forecast for the next couple of
days when you enter your Day 1 forecast. They are not counted towards
any score and it is just a good way to possibly save your score if you
happen to forget to forecast the next day. However, you realistically
likely only have enough time to forecast for the first 24-hour period so
I always just select "Guidance" anyway. </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">If you have any questions, comments please feel free to comment on this post! Best of luck with
forecasting for Billings! Go SBU!!!</span>
Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4114383577734294531.post-9705714677172048342012-09-24T06:33:00.003-07:002012-09-24T14:24:06.224-07:00City #1: Pensacola, FL (KPNS)I suddenly have a craving for some orange juice, don't you? The first city for the competition would be one located on the Gulf of Mexico during the Atlantic hurricane season, right? We will be forecasting for this city from September 24 - October 4. Forecasts are due by 00 UTC or 8:00 PM local time and we will be forecasting for the 24-h period 06 UTC - 06 UTC. For those looking at the Mobile NWS WFO products and graphics for KPNS, they are 1 hour behind us so 06 UTC = 1:00 AM Pensacola (CDT) time.<br />
<br />
What I first like to do is stalk the airport where the verification of the forecast is taking place. I do this via Google Earth or Google Maps to see if there's a field, water body, or giant asphalt parking lot in a particular wind direction that may affect the high temperature, for example.<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="300" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=kpns&aq=&sll=40.947129,-72.670645&sspn=0.069497,0.169086&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=kpns&cid=11310433213529869624&hnear=&ll=30.473088,-87.187157&spn=0.044385,0.051498&z=13&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="300"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=kpns&aq=&sll=40.947129,-72.670645&sspn=0.069497,0.169086&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=kpns&cid=11310433213529869624&hnear=&ll=30.473088,-87.187157&spn=0.044385,0.051498&z=13&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;">So there is water to the East and South and developments immediately surrounding the airport and no significant topography around. Mental notes made.</span></small><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;">After stalking the airport and before looking at model outlooks for the forecast period, I like to check out the <a href="http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/climatenormals/clim20/fl/086997.pdf" target="_blank">climatological averages</a> of temperature and precip. for this time of year. Provided below are the mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures for KPNS but check out the link for information about precipitation and extreme values. (Remember, these are just averages-- there's always exceptions!)</span></small><br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></small>
<small><span style="font-size: small;"><u><b>Month</b> <b>Daily Max</b> <b> Daily Min</b></u></span></small><br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Sep</b> 87.0 70.4 </span></small><br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Oct </b> 79.3 59.6 </span></small><br />
<br />
<small><span style="font-size: small;">Now that I've decided that I want to move there (actually, the humidity would get to me so never mind) it's time to look at what to expect when forecasting for this city.</span></small><br />
<br />
<b><small><span style="font-size: small;">Large-scale Pattern </span></small></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">A look at <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/wxloop.cgi?npole_h500+/-168//" target="_blank">forecast 500-hPa heights</a> according to the GFS shows</span><span style="font-size: small;"> that the ridge looks to build but pop-up showers and
thunderstorms may form on the sea breeze. But all-in-all the pattern is
looking pretty quiet.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>What to watch out for (IMO):</b></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Isolated convection</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">High and low temperatures may be tricky </span></li>
</ul>
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Check out the current weather first via <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/" target="_blank">satellite</a>, <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mob&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">radar</a>, <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface observations</a>, <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php?pageloc=metar" target="_blank">METAR</a>, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. </li>
<li>Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from <a href="http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=22&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false" target="_blank">here</a>, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Pensacola.</li>
<li>Look at <a href="http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html" target="_blank">forecast model soundings</a> for the period for KPNS.</li>
<li>Compare your idea for values with <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/data/weather/model/mos/" target="_blank">MOS (model output statistics)</a>. Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Read the <a href="http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Mobile, AL WFO forecast discussion</a> for KPNS- they use words like "bugaboo" which is hysterical and they provide a lot of insight into the forecast.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover. </li>
<li>Frontal passages, mainly cold frontal for KPNS, can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.</li>
</ul>
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):</b><br />
<ul>
<li>NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models ouput wind speed (WSP) in knots.</li>
<li>Due to the coastal location, there may be sea breeze development that has a cooling effect during the daytime. Look through <a href="http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php" target="_blank">METAR</a> or <a href="http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/" target="_blank">surface obs</a> for wind direction and temperature changes or try to spot it on the <a href="http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mob&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no" target="_blank">Mobile, AL radar</a> and know whether to take it into consideration for certain days with weak synoptic flow.</li>
</ul>
<b>Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. <a href="http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/" target="_blank">WRF</a>)</li>
<li>What does the <a href="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml" target="_blank">HPC</a> show? </li>
<li>Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. <a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewallsref.html" target="_blank">SREF</a>)</li>
<li>Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.</li>
</ul>
<b>What if I'm afraid I'll miss a forecast?</b><br />
<ul>
<li> When making a forecast for the first day only, always select the "Guidance" option for the "Optional Forecast for Future Days" days just in case you forget.</li>
<li>It is advisable that you enter your forecast for the next couple of days when you enter your Day 1 forecast. They are not counted towards any score and it is just a good way to possibly save your score if you happen to forget to forecast the next day. However, you realistically likely only have enough time to forecast for the first 24-hour period so I always just select "Guidance" anyway. </li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: small;">If you have any questions, comments or just feel bored please feel free to comment on this post! If you notice an interesting feature that we'll have to forecast that the models picked up on or want to offer your advice on other web resources to use please please please comment on this post! ;-) Best of luck with forecasting for Pensacola! Go SBU!!!</span><b><small> </small></b>Sarahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09273214036488301116noreply@blogger.com2