City #5: Grand Rapids, MI (KGRR)

Congrats on making it this far in the WxChallenge and on your performance so far this semester. While we are certainly not the best team as that is currently UAlbany (at least it's a fellow SUNY, right?), we are doing okay at 40th place. The final forecast city for the Fall semester is Grand Rapids, MI (KGRR). We will be forecasting for the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM EST) from 2-12 December before taking a break until we start up again in the Spring.

Grand Rapids, Michigan is located about 50 km (25 mi) east of Lake Michigan on the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and is situated on the Grand River. Even though it is displaced from the shore of the lake, it is still a susceptible city to lake effect or lake-enhanced precipitation. There is no real topography to deal with and KGRR is at an elevation of 245 m. Time to stalk the airport!



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KGRR is Gerald R. Ford International Airport and is located to the southeast of the city center. KGRR's WMO ID is 72635. There is no real topography around and there is a mixture of more developed land to the west versus more tree-filled neighborhoods to the east. Remember that "great" lake to the west, though. Be sure to check in with the local NWS WFO which is the Grand Rapids office. A convenient quality of KGRR is that it is located in our timezone (EST) to minimize conversions for us!

Large-scale Pattern: 

The forecast upper-level pattern according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting for Grand Rapids shows an amplifying pattern throughout the week that is associated with the development of a low pressure system sometime mid-week (there's some model disagreement about the timing). Throughout the week there's a pretty steady chance of light precipitation, especially within the next couple of days with the passage of a warm front ahead of the strengthening low pressure system. A good tactic for dealing with precipitation forecasts like this is to look at some plume diagrams that show the differences between the models and then return to each model and check out some key levels (e.g. is the 850 mb temperature advection too overdone or is there a stronger jet at 300 mb or more positive vorticity advection at 500 mb?).

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Grand Rapids.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KGRR.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS.  
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Grand Rapids, MI WFO forecast discussion for the GRR CWA. Keep in mind that they are covering a few diverse landscapes (coastline and higher terrain). These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
• http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KGRR!
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

I hope you are Team Jacob because Grand Rapids is Taylor Lautner's hometown as well as Reed Timmer's which is more appropriate given our field of study. Best of luck forecasting for KGRR! Go Team SBU!!! Have a very Happy Holidays and enjoy your Winter Break! We'll resume forecasting on 27 January 2014. 

City #4: Concord, NH (KCON)

Forecasting for Norman, OK is officially over and we are moving on to a city a bit closer to home, Concord, NH. We will be forecasting for Concord, NH (KCON) for the 24-h period (06 UTC - 06 UTC) from 11 November - 21 November which is 1 AM - 1 AM EST. Forecasts are due at 00 UTC which is 7 PM EST. After we finish up forecasting for KCON we get a week off for the Thanksgiving holiday and then resume forecasting for our final forecasting city which is Grand Rapids, MI. Just a heads up! We have to survive forecasting for the Northeast first, though.

Concord, NH was named because it was territory that was disputed between two early settlers and by naming it so they hoped it would create harmony or peace between the opposing people. Let's hope that forecasting for it is filled with peace and harmony and less hair-pulling-out than the uncertain convection that we dealt with for Norman, OK! Concord is located in south-central New Hampshire about 100 km south of the White Mountains. It is located in a flood plain of the Merrimack River at an elevation of around 150 m above sea level.


View Larger Map

Time to stalk KCON! KCON is located across the river from the city and has a WMO ID of 72605 and an elevation of 105 m. There is not too much in the way of complex terrain in the vicinity of Concord so that takes out a bit of mesoscale complexity for forecasting.

Large-scale Pattern: 

The forecast upper-level pattern according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting for Concord, NH is leading off with a strong cold frontal passage forecast for Monday evening that may force some showers but will definitely mark the new colder air mass settling into place over the Northeast. No strong synoptic players seem to be emerging for the later part of the week so the forecasting challenge should be getting the temperatures just right. I recommend playing around with BUFKIT in the Met. Lab and paying attenion to any forecast saturated layers indicating cloud cover which would definitely affect the high/low temperatures. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Concord.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KCON.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS.  
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Gray/Portland, Maine WFO forecast discussion for the GYX CWA. Keep in mind that they are covering a few diverse landscapes (coastline and higher terrain). These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KCON!
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.
• e.g. easterly winds should be more moist (coming from the Atlantic) which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Tropical activity? (Oh my goodness, I hope not... but it is still before 1 December!)
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

Alright guys- you are all doing really well with the WxChallenge and I hope that you have fun with this second-to-last forecast city for the Fall 2013 semester! It's definitely fun to be back in the Northeast, right? Pay attention to the broad synoptic pattern at hand and use your best judgement to get those diurnal temperature swings just right! If you ever have any questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I still have candy. That is all. Good luck with KCON and let's go Team SBU!!!

City #3: Norman, OK (NRMN)

Forecasting for Cheyenne, WY is officially over and we are moving on to an exciting addition to the WxChallenge. We will now be forecasting for a Mesonet station in Norman, OK (NRMN). This is not a METAR site at an airport as we are used to with available ~hourly data. The Oklahoma Mesonet is a network of high temporal and spatial observations. Data is collected approximately every 5 minutes and observations from these stations can be incredibly interesting when they observe a frontal passage or any mesoscale or convective boundaries. We will be forecasting for Norman, OK (NRMN) for the 24-h period (06 UTC - 06 UTC) from 28 October - 7 November which is 1 AM - 1 AM CDT for the first week of forecasting but is 12 AM - 12 AM CST for the second week of forecasting thanks to Daylight Savings Time ending on 3 November. So that means that forecasts are still due at 00 UTC which is 8 PM EDT for the first week of forecasting for Norman but at 7 PM EST for the second week of forecasting for Norman! Please, please, please remember that! I'll walk by Professor Colle's class on Monday, 4 November playing this from my phone just in case...






Time to stalk NRMN! Norman, OK is located in central Oklahoma due south of Oklahoma City which means it is incredibly flat. The observation site is located right near the ASOS station for Norman, OK (KOUN) at the Max Westheimer Airport. It is collocated with the University of Oklahoma Research Park (where the NWS forecast office used to be) where they have a dual-pol radar and a phased-array radar that they test and you can see by zooming in on the satellite imagery below. The airport is located to the northeast of the National Weather Center which houses many things including NSSL, SPC, The University of Oklahoma Meteorology Department and the Norman, OK NWS Weather Forecast Office. If you ever have an opportunity to go to the National Weather Center- definitely go. I spent a weekend there in January and then an entire summer there in 2010 and it was an incredible experience with very interesting weather. Anyway, the Mesonet site has a great page devoted to it with panoramic photos and a ton of information so I would definitely check it out. A live webcam image can be found on the WxChallenge site information page for NRMN. For a meteogram of the data, click here. Even though the observational data is available at a higher temporal frequency than the ASOS data we are used to, the rules for the WxChallenge are not changing in any way except that the verification will come from the 5-minute data instead of the hourly and the wind data is going to come from the 5-minute 10-meter wind sensor instead of the 2-m wind. A cool thing about this is that our scores will actually be updated every 5 minutes instead of every hour... although that might drive some people insane if they are prone to compulsively checking the scores. ;-) For a full list of rule changes and site information for NRMN, please consult the WxChallenge page.



View Larger Map


Large-scale Pattern: 

The forecast upper-level pattern for the start of our first week of forecasting for Norman, OK is tricky. There is an upper-level low that is strengthening over the Rocky Mountains (deepening trough) which will allow for some ridging downstream which may usher in some warm, moist air into Oklahoma. There may be some weak upper-level disturbances out ahead of the main system that, combined with the moisture gradient across the region, may force some showers and thunderstorm activity. The low should move eastward and cause some precipitation for NRMN sometime mid-week. The timing of the frontal passage and the strength of the pre-system disturbances are still a bit up in the air... literally. For the rest of the time forecasting for Norman, the AO is expected to trend negative which may mean amplified flow and consistent disturbances tracking across the US. The GFS in its "dreamland" hours (> fh 180) hint at this type of pattern. We'll see!

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. Use Norman, OK (KOUN) in place of the Mesonet Site (NRMN) but to check out the current observations with the Mesonet site you can look at an updated meteogram. And also see the 3-day observation history for NRMN.
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Norman.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KOUN (close enough to NRMN).
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Norman WFO forecast discussion for KOUN/NRMN. These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.
• i.e. southeasterly winds should be more moist which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, because of the flat terrain, advection plays a major role especially with deep troughs allowing for cold, Canadian air to spill into the Central US.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Tropical activity?
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

Alright guys- I hope you are excited to forecast for a Mesonet station for the first ever time in WxChallenge history!!! Norman, OK is an awesome city (Boomer Sooner!!!) and is very vulnerable to air masses coming from any direction because it is just so flat and in the middle of everything. If you ever have any questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I still have candy. That is all. Good luck with NRMN and let's go Team SBU!!!

City #2: Cheyenne, WY (KCYS)

With the barely predictable convective rainfall, aren't you happy to be done with forecasting for Houston, TX? I know I am. We are now forecasting for Cheyenne, WY (KCYS) from 14 October - 24 October for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06 UTC which translates to 12 AM local Cheyenne time (MDT) if you are looking at NWS Cheyenne forecast products. Forecasts need to be submitted by 00 UTC which is 8 PM local Long Island time (EDT).

Time to stalk the airport! Cheyenne, WY is located near the southeast corner of the state of Wyoming just east of the Laramie Mountains. KCYS is Cheyenne Airport with a WMO ID of 72564. There is very flat terrain south, east and north of the station which may allow for unimpeded advection of heat and moisture with strong systems from winds from those directions. Something to keep in mind!


View Larger Map
 
Large-scale Pattern: 

I think that forecasting for Cheyenne will prove challenging given the general troughiness in place that may allow for a few disturbances to develop along shortwaves that may develop. A look at forecast 500-hPa heights according to the GFS ensemble shows that the general trend in heights seems to be highly amplified early in the forecasting period (the first week) and returning in a more zonal structure for the second week. With a mean trough set up over the Rockies, a resultant continental cyclone will likely be the main player early on. To see if I'm right, check out what WPC is calling for. The position of Cheyenne relative to the cyclone will affect both temperatures and precipitation amount and the strong pressure gradient will definitely affect wind speeds. Take a look at the 1000-500 mb thickness values and pay special attention to that 540 dam line as a good indication of a rain/snow line. Keep in mind that for the WxChallenge precipitation forecast, it is liquid equivalent in inches! Models all output as such but don't look at any info-graphics calling for Cheyenne to get 3 feet and then put 36 inches; I will laugh at you because you have been properly warned. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future.
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Cheyenne.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KCYS.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Cheyenne WFO forecast discussion for KCYS. These are the experts for that location, after all!

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.
• i.e. southeasterly winds should be more moist which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, westerlies may allow for downslope warming of air towards Cheyenne. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Tropical activity?!? (Part of me wants there to be while another part of me doesn't at all.) 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website.

Alright guys- let's not let CYS make rodeo clowns out of us! If you ever have any questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I have candy. That is all. Good luck with KCYS and let's go Team SBU!!!

City #1: Houston, TX (KHOU)

Welcome to forecasting for the WxChallenge for the 2013-2014 academic year! Check out the previous post for general information about this forecasting contest. Are you pumped to test out your skills?! City #1 is the first city for the fall 2013 semester. We are forecasting for Houston, TX (KHOU) from 30 September - 10 October for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06 UTC which translates to 1 AM local Houstin time (CDT) if you are looking at NWS Houston/Galveston forecast products. Forecasts need to be submitted by 00 UTC which is 8 PM local Long Island time (EDT).

Houston is located on the southeastern coast of Texas on the Gulf of Mexico. It is not an accident that it was chosen as the first forecast city for the WxChallenge for early October-- it's still hurricane season! Perhaps the organizers of the WxChallenge are refusing to give up on this pretty pathetic tropical season so we have to admire their spirit! Houston, TX is also a really important city to forecast for because it is a major shipping port (one of the busiest in the country). As Joe Sienkiewicz of the Ocean Prediction Center once said, "Only two things travel by air: people and fish. Everything else travels by ship." Also, Houston is home to the second highest number of Fortune 500 companies just behind our beloved NYC! Therefore, if you were to work for a private forecasting firm, I'm pretty sure you'd have some customers who cared a lot about Houston. (Source: Wikipedia is amazing)
 

View Larger Map

Time to stalk the airport! KHOU is William P. Hobby Airport with a WMO ID of 72244. The METAR location page of the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) that will be used to verify your forecast actually has images of the station from each direction (images are found directly below the map). This is the best airport stalking that we've been able to do since I started this blog last year! So you can see that this location is flat, in unimpeded (no real topography) proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and more closely Galveston Bay and pretty developed (more urban than not). So warm, moist air is likely constantly coming off of the Gulf given southerly and southeasterly flow and drier air will likely be advected by the mean flow  from most other directions. We'll definitely keep that in mind.

A good question to ask before looking at the current weather pattern is what conditions are typically expected at KHOU? A quick way to familiarize yourself with the climatology of a station is to look up the climate normals which for KHOU are found here. The mean maximum daily temperature from the period of 1981-2010 for the months of September and October is in the mid-80's and the minimum is in the upper-60's. October is also one of the more wetter months for Houston with the exception of July which is during the height of the convective season. Temperatures and precipitation can always occur outside of the climate envelope, especially if a huge ridge of high pressure develops over the central US (above normal temps), a deep trough (below normal temps), or a tropical system crashes into the coast (way above normal precipitation). 

Large-scale Pattern:
I suspect that forecasting for Houston, TX will be messy because there are three main forecasting challenges: mesoscale boundaries, diurnal convection, and tropical systems.... 
- A mesoscale boundary is a smaller boundary than a larger-scale (synoptic-scale) front and can form from the outflow of previous convection or just along some weakly convergent winds. If there is sufficient instability and I doubt moisture will be an issue, then there will be forcing for precipitation. 
-Diurnal convection is an issue because given the absense of a strong synoptic-scale player, daytime heating of the surface can allow for any moist air near Houston to rise given enough instability to form storms. 
-As I mentioned before, it is still the season for tropical activity and the Gulf of Mexico is sufficiently warm and convection has been consistently developing especially with the penetration of cold fronts into the Tropics that allows for the generation of vorticity (spin needed to organize systems) if the shear is not too detrimental. 

A look at forecast 500-hPa heights according to the GFS shows that the general trend in heights seems to be relatively zonal in nature so diurnal convection may be the primary forecasting challenge during our first week of forecasting. Depending on the speed of the propagation of the low pressure system forecast to develop lee of the Rockies by the end of the week, there may be a cold frontal passage (cold FROPA) to deal with. And of course, we can't ignore any tropical activity.
Summary of what to watch out for:

• Small-scale (mesoscale) boundaries that may provide forcing for precipitation and changes in temperature
• Zoom-in and look around this version of the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) surface analysis to get a handle on what's going on that day and therefore what still may be an active player around 06 UTC.
• Cold fronts: heavy precipitation and rapid temperature changes.
• Tropical cyclones or general areas of tropical convection spinning around the Gulf.
• Check out the satellite the evening before to see if there are any clusters of convection that perhaps the National Hurricane Center (NHC) isn't too worried about but you should be! (Keep in mind that convection tends to weaken at night given its diurnal nature even over warm ocean waters so check the afternoon before to see what's happening in the southwestern Gulf.)
• Another good tropical website is the U. of Wisconsin-Madison CIMMS page with regional real-time products found below the TC-specific products (if there are even any active TCs, *sigh*).
• Trust the experts and read the NHC Atlantic Discussion, especially the Gulf of Mexico section.  

  
Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future.
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Houston.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KHOU.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Houston/Galveston WFO forecast discussion for KHOU. These are the experts for that location, afterall!

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures, 
• i.e. southeasterly winds should be more moist which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. For example, westerlies may bring warmer continental air towards Houston for some synoptic situations. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Tropical activity?!? (Part of me wants there to be while another part of me doesn't at all.) 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.

Be sure to check out the previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website.

Alright guys- grab your cowboy hats and boots and let's try to lasso up some great forecasts! It should be a challenging forecast city so it makes the perfect first one of the 2013-2014 contest! If you ever have any questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I have candy. That is all. Good luck with KHOU and let's go Team SBU!!!

WxChallenge 2013-2014!

Welcome to the WxChallenge discussion site for members of the SBU team (and any esteemed guests, of course)! If you are new to the WxChallenge forecasting competition then you are in for an exciting year of testing your forecasting knowledge for sites across the country!

On this site you can find information on each forecast city as well as useful links and resources to help assist your forecasting process. Normally, a post specific to each new forecasting city will start off each forecasting period. Discussions of especially challenging or boring forecasts are encouraged and are done by commenting on any post.

The Challenge
The competition begins on September 30, 2013 for Houston, TX (KHOU). The full schedule for the Fall semester is as follows:

City	Identifier	Dates
Houston, TX	KHOU	September 30 - October10
Cheyenne, WY	KCYS	October 14 - October 24
Norman, OK	KRMN	October 28 - November 7
Concord, NH	KCON	November 11 - November 21
Grand Rapids, MI	KGRR	December 2 - December 12

Source: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php

Forecasts are due at 00 UTC and are made for a period 06 UTC - 06 UTC. So until Daylight Savings Time, forecasts are due at 8:00 PM after which it will change to 7:00 PM. You forecast every Monday night - Thursday night and have Friday's off. After the Fall cities are done we take a break and resume in the Spring semester.

The cost for participation in both the Fall and Spring semesters is $5; the cost for one semester is $3. Your forecaster ID must contain 6 letters and/or numbers. You will be put in a category with other participants of your level, e.g. Category 4: Freshmen/Sophomores, Category 3: Juniors/Seniors, Category 2: Grad students, etc. It is not unusual and is highly encouraged for Cat 4 forecasters to kick Cat 2 forecasters' butts. Just putting that out there. However, we do get judged as a team (SUNY-Stony Brook) so please feel free to discuss the thinking behind your forecasts but you must keep your exact numbers to yourself.

For each forecast you must submit a high temperature (F), low temperature (F), maximum wind speed (kts) and precipitation amount (in). Note that the wind speed is sustained, not gusts, and the precipitation amount is the cumulative liquid precipitation- so don't put 12 inches if you think it will snow a foot!

That's about all of the important information I wanted to provide here. For more detailed info and guidelines on the scoring system please see the WxChallenge website. Motivational statement: first and second place forecasters for each category receive trophies for every city, not just overall or tournament winners. So there's plenty of opportunities for glory here!

Below are a few useful resources however everyone is encouraged to log onto the Metlab computers and plot model data using nmap2, analyze soundings with BUFKIT, etc. New this year is an online discussion board called MetScholars: Connecting Students in Meteorology. Through that you can find even more links to forecasting resources and a place for discussion with students from many other colleges and universities. It may serve as a great platform for learning from your peers (or the mistakes of your peers!).

Useful Links
Submit your forecasts: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php
Check out the WxChallenge site information and verification: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php (click on the current forecast city's city link) 
MetScholars Discussion Topic: Forecasting

Current Analyses
-Satellite-
Global Satellite (NRL)

Regional Satellite (RAP/UCAR) 
NASA GOES (ESO)
NOAA SSD Satellite Imagery 

Satellite (UW-Madison)
 

 -Surface-

Surface Obs (RAP/UCAR)
METAR (UWyo)

Surface Potential Temperature Map (UAlbany)

National Radar (NOAA)

Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
 

-Upper-levels-

Upper Air (NCEP)

Soundings (UWyoming)

-Tropical & Severe Wx-

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

CIMMS Tropical Cyclones (UWisc-Madison)

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
Mike Erickson's TC Track Page

 Forecasting Resources
WxForecaster

Twisterdata

PSU E-wall

NCEP Model Page 
NSSL WRF Page
University of Washington Site of Loops

MetScholars Forecasting Resources
MOS (Text)
MOS WxChallenge city-specific data (UAlbany)
Ensemble Data Links (Spaghetti plots, SREF, GEFS, etc.)

Archived Data

ESRL Interactive Plotting & Analysis
North American Historical Wx Maps (UWashington)

Radar and Satellite (UCAR)

SPC Storm Reports & Mesoanalyses

Monthly Climate Normals (NCDC)

Additional Sources (MetScholars) 

Please feel free to comment below with any questions or comments. Please let me know if you have any trouble logging on to submit your forecasts. Thanks for your enthusiasm and good luck-- let's go SBU!!!

*Bonus Forecast City* Wichita, KS (KICT)

Congratulations on completing your participation in WxChallenge for the 2012-2013 academic year! The WxChallenge switches gears to a tournament starting Monday, 8 April. While everyone is invited to participate in forecasting for this city, only two SBUer's forecasts actually count. Congratulations to BillyS for getting in the top 32 and 4castr for getting in the top 64 for each of their categories!!! You guys rock! So if you are neither BillyS nor 4castr, why would you still forecast for Wichita? Well, if you end up doing better than them (because your score is still calculated although it doesn't count towards anything) you could tease the heck out of them. Just kidding, but Wichita should be a blast to forecast for. Who says "blast"? I do.

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore... Except that we are.

We will be forecasting for Wichita for four weeks (8 Apr - 4 May). The tournament schedule is a little different-- forecasts are due by 00 UTC on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Note that you do not forecast on Wednesday and you do forecast on Friday. Wednesdays are when they determine who moves onto the next round, bracket-style. The full rules are found here.

Wichita, KS (KICT, Wichita Mid-Continent Airport) is located in south-central Kansas. The Arkansas River is the largest water body nearby so besides that, there is really nothing geographically significant. Wichita is flat. Stalking the airport we see that it is located to the southwest of the city center.




View Larger Map

I'm pretty sure this city won the voting because it would be a likely center of action for any severe weather activity during the forecast period. I'm sure the atmosphere won't disappoint! No seriously, I'm sure the atmosphere won't disappoint and a first quick look for you should be what the SPC is saying for the coming days and you'll be sure, too!

Springtime in the Plains is the severe weather season. There are three ingredients for convection: moisture, instability, and lift. The moisture is usually present from strong southerly advection off of the Gulf of Mexico and can be seen by paying attention to dew point values from surface observations, or plots of mixing ratio, or any other low-level moisture fields. The instability usually comes from the solar heating of the surface, hence why most severe convection tends to occur in the afternoon and evening hours. Current and forecast soundings for ICT can help deduce where the most instability is. You can have all of the instability in the world, but if there is no lifting mechanism then the worst threat is air mass thunderstorms. The lifting mechanism is a synoptic-scale system whose low center, warm front, and cold front (and dry line if it forms-- pay attention to the dew point gradient being much larger than the temperature gradient) can provide the lift needed to generate severe convection. 

So what specialized tools are available? Luckily, a lot! I would first go to the experts themselves at the Storm Prediction Center to see what's up. To get a handle on the current conditions, I would look through a few fields by means of a mesoanalysis. After that, I would use the SREF to look at forecast moisture (2m dew point), instability (CAPE: surface-based and most unstable), and lift (frontogenesis). Isolating precipitation amounts, I would look to a high-resolution WRF run that hopefully will be run out far enough to make an accurate forecast. But that's what I would do and I didn't make the tourney ;-).

Large-scale Pattern:
 
A look at forecast 500-hPa heights according to the GFS shows a lee trough east of the Rocky Mountains which should maintain a low pressure system that may spark some severe weather for KICT until Wednesday. That moves through and weak ridging or more zonal flow should occur through the end of the week. Another system may be present for the late weekend into early next week. Special attention should be given to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecasts of the general pattern and QPF and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts of any severe activity. 
 
Tips/Comments for Wichita (KICT):

• Analyze all ingredients for convection, starting with the SPC products and tools.
• Look at more than one deterministic model, especially side-by-side comparisons, toggling between models (Mode: Clickable Map), or even better- ensembles (SREF/GEFS Plumes, SREF Maps, GEFS Maps).
• WxChallenge's wind forecast is for sustained, not gusts. Instead of just looking at plan-view maps at or near the surface, try taking a look at forecast soundings. The measured wind speed is a 2-minute average. Gusts often occur because with heavy precip, higher momentum air can be brought down to the surface, i.e. winds reach the surface via more than just mixing, but unless they persist for about 2-minutes they won't verify.  So I don't think a tornado's fury would count for the wind speed.
• Really read the NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). Those forecasters are experts in the intricacies of forecasting for Wichita.

 Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future.
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Wichita.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KICT.
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Wichita, KS WFO forecast discussion for KICT.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes.

 
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
• What does the WPC (formerly known as HPC) show?
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (if no local option then try SPC's SREF page))
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.

 
Congratulations, again, to BillyS and 4castr for getting into the tournament! Congratulations to the rest of you for getting through a whole academic year of forecasting for all over the United States! I hope that you all learned a lot or at least gained a greater appreciation for forecasting for places other than SBU. However, it's true that there's no place like home *clicks heels.* If you ever have any questions about forecasting, the WxChallenge, or just want to talk about weather-- feel free to e-mail me, comment on this post, or stop by my office. You guys rock and hopefully you'll forecast next year, too! Go Team SBU!!! 

City #10: Des Moines, IA (KDSM)! *Final Official Forecast City of the Year!*

I hope you all enjoyed your spring break even though you didn't get a break from forecasting! We are done with Duluth and move south to Des Moines, IA (KDSM). We will be forecasting for the 24-hour period from 06-06 UTC from 25 March - 4 April. Forecasts are due by 00 UTC which is 8 PM local time. 06 UTC corresponds with 1 AM CDT if you are looking at the NWS Des Moines, IA page.

Des Moines is geographically plain in my opinion, mainly due to the fact that it is flat and land-locked and part of the Great Plains. The main atmospheric drivers will be synoptic systems and diurnal patterns. So given that, it should be a straight-forward city to forecast for.

Taking the time to stalk the airport, we see that KDSM is located in central Iowa at the intersections of I-35 and I-80. There's no real significant topographic or water bodies nearby. The airport is located southwest of the city center with suburban areas to its east and a lot of farm fields to its west-southwest. If it was more Springy (yes, that's a word) then I'd expect humidity to be higher when winds blow over the fields due to evapotranspiration but I'm pretty sure the season isn't in full bloom yet.



View Larger Map

Large-scale Pattern:
 
A look at forecast 500-hPa heights according to the GFS shows general troughing in the East for the first week of forecasting with general ridging in the Central and Western US. A few shortwaves move up and over the ridge and slide down the trough which may provide some forcing for weak precipitation or general cloudiness for a couple days. No real systems seem to be affecting KDSM for the first week of forecasting. In fact, a cutoff low off of the West Coast seems to amplify the ridge lee of the Rockies so there may be springlike conditions felt in KDSM by the end of the week.
Tips/Comments for Des Moines (KDSM):

• Look at more than one deterministic model, especially side-by-side comparisons, toggling between models (Mode: Clickable Map), or even better- ensembles (SREF/GEFS Plumes, SREF Maps, GEFS Maps).
• WxChallenge's wind forecast is for sustained, not gusts. Instead of just looking at plan-view maps at or near the surface, try taking a look at forecast soundings. The measured wind speed is a 2-minute average. Gusts often occur because with heavy precip, higher momentum air can be brought down to the surface, i.e. winds reach the surface via more than just mixing, but unless they persist for about 2-minutes they won't verify. 
• Really read the NWS Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). Those forecasters are experts in the intricacies of forecasting for Des Moines.

 Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future.
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Des Moines.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KDSM.
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Des Moines, IA WFO forecast discussion for KDSM.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes.

 
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
• What does the WPC (formerly known as HPC) show?
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (if no local option then try SPC's SREF page))
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.

I don't know much about Des Moines  except for what's talked about during election time, but hopefully that won't be a hindering ability to forecast for KDSM. This is the last WxChallenge city before the tournament begins which only counts for those who qualify but everyone is invited to participate, so let's go out with a bang this year! Go Team SBU!!