Sunday, January 27, 2013

WxChallenge Spring 2013!

Welcome back to the WxChallenge discussion site for the SBU team! I hope that you enjoyed your winter break and are ready to get back into the groove of point forecasting for cities across the United States. This semester is special for two reasons...

(1) We get to vote for the 10th forecasting city!
Isn't that pretty cool? Simply log in and input your top three cities' stations ID with the preceding "K" (or "P" if you are considering some Alaskan cities!) The list of valid stations are found here. Voting is done here and must be completed before February 7th! I'm totally voting for KISP, KLGA, and KJFK but that's because I'm in a New York state of mind.

(2) There is a tournament at the end for those who qualify!
The top 64 forecasters based on their combined fall and spring normalized scores are invited to participate in a tournament forecasting for the final city. The bracket will be posted here and there you can find additional rules about the tournament. Think you have what it takes?? Go for it this semester! Best of luck!

The Challenge
The contest begins on Monday, January 28th for Austin, Texas (KAUS). Forecasts are due by 00 UTC or 7 PM EST. Here is the schedule for this semester:


City Identifier Dates
Austin, TX KAUS January 28 - February 7
Burbank, CA KBUR February 11 - February 21
Newark, NJ KEWR February 25 - March 7
Duluth, MN KDLH March 11 - March 21
To Be Determined* KTBD March 25 - April 4  (Vote by 2/7!)
Wichita, KS ** KICT April 8 - May 4







Source: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php

The rules haven't changed at all from the fall semester. We are still forecasting for the 24-hour period 06 UTC - 06 UTC. For each forecast you must submit a high temperature (F), low temperature (F), maximum wind speed (kts) and precipitation amount (in). Note that the wind speed is sustained, not gusts, and the precipitation amount is the cumulative liquid precipitation- so don't put 12 inches if you think it will snow a foot!

For more detailed info and guidelines on the scoring system please see the WxChallenge website. Motivational statement: first and second place forecasters for each category receive trophies for every city, not just overall or tournament winners. We got close last semester with a few of our forecasters so let's try to get some trophies this semester!

Below are a few useful resources however everyone is encouraged to log onto the Metlab computers and plot model data using nmap2, analyze soundings with BUFKIT, etc. Thanks for your enthusiasm and good luck-- let's go SBU!

Useful Links
Submit your forecasts: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php

Current Analysis

-Satellite-
Global Satellite (NRL)

 -Surface-
-Upper-levels-
-Tropical & Severe Wx-

Forecasting Resources

WxForecaster

Archived Data

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