Sunday, November 10, 2013

City #4: Concord, NH (KCON)

Forecasting for Norman, OK is officially over and we are moving on to a city a bit closer to home, Concord, NH. We will be forecasting for Concord, NH (KCON) for the 24-h period (06 UTC - 06 UTC) from 11 November - 21 November which is 1 AM - 1 AM EST. Forecasts are due at 00 UTC which is 7 PM EST. After we finish up forecasting for KCON we get a week off for the Thanksgiving holiday and then resume forecasting for our final forecasting city which is Grand Rapids, MI. Just a heads up! We have to survive forecasting for the Northeast first, though.

Concord, NH was named because it was territory that was disputed between two early settlers and by naming it so they hoped it would create harmony or peace between the opposing people. Let's hope that forecasting for it is filled with peace and harmony and less hair-pulling-out than the uncertain convection that we dealt with for Norman, OK! Concord is located in south-central New Hampshire about 100 km south of the White Mountains. It is located in a flood plain of the Merrimack River at an elevation of around 150 m above sea level.


View Larger Map

Time to stalk KCON! KCON is located across the river from the city and has a WMO ID of 72605 and an elevation of 105 m. There is not too much in the way of complex terrain in the vicinity of Concord so that takes out a bit of mesoscale complexity for forecasting.

Large-scale Pattern: 

The forecast upper-level pattern according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting for Concord, NH is leading off with a strong cold frontal passage forecast for Monday evening that may force some showers but will definitely mark the new colder air mass settling into place over the Northeast. No strong synoptic players seem to be emerging for the later part of the week so the forecasting challenge should be getting the temperatures just right. I recommend playing around with BUFKIT in the Met. Lab and paying attenion to any forecast saturated layers indicating cloud cover which would definitely affect the high/low temperatures. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:


Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):


  • Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog.
  • Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KCON!
  • Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.
    • e.g. easterly winds should be more moist (coming from the Atlantic) which means a higher dew point which means a higher nighttime temperature and northwesterly winds will advect drier air which means a lower dew point which means the possibility for lower nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

  • NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
  • Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

  • Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF)
  • What does the WPC show? 
  • Tropical activity? (Oh my goodness, I hope not... but it is still before 1 December!)
  • Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
  • Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here.)
  • Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary.
Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

Alright guys- you are all doing really well with the WxChallenge and I hope that you have fun with this second-to-last forecast city for the Fall 2013 semester! It's definitely fun to be back in the Northeast, right? Pay attention to the broad synoptic pattern at hand and use your best judgement to get those diurnal temperature swings just right! If you ever have any questions please feel free to stop by my office in Challenger 121. I still have candy. That is all. Good luck with KCON and let's go Team SBU!!!

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