On this site you can find information on each forecast city as well as useful links and resources to help assist your forecasting process. Normally, a post specific to each new forecasting city will start off each forecasting period. Discussions of especially challenging or boring forecasts are encouraged and are done by commenting on any post.
The Challenge
The competition begins for the Spring semester on January 27, 2014 for Atlanta, GA (KATL). The full schedule for the semester is as follows:
| City | Identifier | Dates | ||
| Atlanta, GA | KATL | January 27 - February 6 | ||
| Fairbanks, AK | PAFA | February 10 - February 20 | ||
| Baltimore, MD | KBWI | February 24 - March 6 | ||
| Redding, CA | KRDD | March 10 - March 2 | ||
| TBD via vote | ? | March 24 - April 3 |
Source: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php
Forecasts are due at 00 UTC and are made for a period 06 UTC - 06 UTC. So until Daylight Savings Time begins, forecasts are due at 7:00 PM after which it will change to 8:00 PM. You forecast every Monday night - Thursday night and have Friday's off. After the normal cities are done we take a break for a week and play one mystery city that has yet to be determined and then all those who qualify will compete in the tournament city which this year is Springfield, MO.
Recall from last semester, we do get judged as a team (SUNY-Stony Brook) so please feel free to discuss the thinking behind your forecasts but you must keep your exact numbers to yourself.
For each forecast you must submit a high temperature (F), low temperature (F), maximum wind speed (kts) and precipitation amount (in). Note that the wind speed is sustained, not gusts, and the precipitation amount is the cumulative liquid precipitation- so don't put 12 inches if you think it will snow a foot!
That's about all of the important information I wanted to provide here. For more detailed info and guidelines on the scoring system please see the WxChallenge website. Motivational statement: first and second place forecasters for each category receive trophies for every city, not just overall or tournament winners. So there's plenty of opportunities for glory here! The tournament rules are a bit involved and I will explain them in more detail as we get closer to the end of the semester. Click here and scroll down until you reach "Tournament" if you wanted to read-up in advance.
Below are a few useful resources however everyone is encouraged to log onto the Metlab computers and plot model data using nmap2, analyze soundings with BUFKIT, etc. New this year is an online discussion board called MetScholars: Connecting Students in Meteorology. Through that you can find even more links to forecasting resources and a place for discussion with students from many other colleges and universities. It may serve as a great platform for learning from your peers (or the mistakes of your peers!).
Useful Links
Submit your forecasts: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php
Check out the WxChallenge site information and verification: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php (click on the current forecast city's city link)
MetScholars Discussion Topic: Forecasting
My favorite WxChallenge-specific sites:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php
Current Analyses
-Satellite-
Global Satellite (NRL)
-Surface-
-Upper-levels-
-Tropical & Severe Wx-
Forecasting Resources
WxForecaster
MetScholars Forecasting Resources
MOS (Text)
MOS WxChallenge city-specific data (UAlbany)
Ensemble Data Links (Spaghetti plots, SREF, GEFS, etc.)
MOS (Text)
MOS WxChallenge city-specific data (UAlbany)
Ensemble Data Links (Spaghetti plots, SREF, GEFS, etc.)
Archived Data
Please feel free to comment below with any questions or comments. Please let me know if you have any trouble logging on to submit your forecasts. Thanks for your enthusiasm and good luck-- let's go SBU!!!
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