*Bonus Forecast City* Springfield, MO (KSGF)

Congratulations on completing your participation in the WxChallenge for the 2013-2014 academic year! The WxChallenge switches gears to a tournament starting Monday, 7 April. Everyone is invited to participate as a bonus forecast city to further stretch your point-forecasting muscles, however unfortunately no forecaster from SBU was able to score well enough nationally to compete in the tournament. Oh well, better luck next year! I would still encourage you to continue to submit your forecasts because wouldn't it be funny if you ended up scoring better than the person who won?!

We will be forecasting for Springfield, Missouri (KSGF) for four weeks (7 Apr - 3 May). The tournament schedule is a little different-- forecasts are due by 00 UTC on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Note that you do not forecast on Wednesday and you do forecast on Friday. Wednesdays are when they determine who moves onto the next round, bracket-style. The full rules are found here.

Why Springfield? It's severe weather season in the Plains so that should make for some interesting forecasting challenges. Springfield is located in southwestern Missouri close to the OK, KS and AK borders. Time to stalk the airport!


KSGF is Springfield-Branson National Airport and is located to the northwest of the city center. There's actually a little bit of topography in the state of Missouri known as the Ozarks. The highest peaks (< 3000 ft / 800 m) are located to the south of KSGF in Arkansas. The WMO ID is 72440. I would always check in with the expert forecasters for that location, those at the NWS Springfield WFO.

Ozarks; Source.

Given the time of year and the geography of the area, I would look at higher-resolution models in addition to other operational products (NAM, GFS) such as the following:

• Rapid Refresh (RAP)
• Forecast meteogram found here. 
• Forecast soundings found here.
• Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)
• Forecast meteogram (plumes) found here.

Large-Scale Pattern:
A trough currently over the Central U.S. should slide eastward and heights should build behind it bringing lower chances for precipitation during the first few forecasts for Springfield according to the 12Z GFS initialized 6 April.  

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General: 

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar (pretty good radar coverage in ND!), surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Springfield.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KSGF.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS. Here's a winter-specific SREF page just for fun.  
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Springfield, MO WFO forecast discussion for info on KSGF. These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
• http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php  

• The SBU-WRF run by Professor Colle's research group has Springfield in their 36-km domain and can be found here:
• http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit): 

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, snow cover, and fog. Is there snow cover? Gosh, I hope not but check out here!
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots): 

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches): 

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF, hi-res NAM) or compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF or for a zoomed-in national look try here. And for a winter-weather specific SREF page then check this out.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

Thank you for your participation in the 2013-2014 WxChallenge Forecasting Competition! As always, go Team SBU!

City #10: Grand Forks, ND (KGFK) & The Final City of the Year!

Congratulations on making it to the end of the WxChallenge 2013-14 year! The final standard forecast city of the challenge is the one that we all had the chance to vote on and the winner is Grand Forks, ND (KGFK)! I'm biased and think that's a random location and would much prefer to forecast for an adorable city on the coast of Maine or something like that but Grand Forks will have to do. If you advance into the tournament (are in the top 64 of all forecasters at all levels who are full-year participants) then you have one last city after KGFK, otherwise everyone can forecast for the tournament city as a low-pressure bonus city just for fun. We will be forecasting for Grand Forks, ND from 24 March - 3 April for the 24-h period from 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM CDT). Forecasts are still due by 00 UTC (8 PM EDT).

Grand Forks, ND (KGFK) is in northeastern North Dakota right near the border of Minnesota. The city is found along the Red River (where it forks from the Red Lake River, and it forks grandly at that) and is forever remembered for the 1997 Red River Flood that thankfully wasn't responsible for any fatalities but was responsible for about $3.5 billion in damage. There's no topography to speak of so that saves some typing. Let's just jump straight to stalking the airport.



The airport is Grand Forks International Airport and is located to the west of the city center and the Red River seemingly surrounded by farm fields. The WMO ID is 72757. The average high temperature for March - April can vary from 30's - 50's F and the average low temperature is in the 30's - 40's F but just looking at the 850-hPa temperature standardized anomaly forecast from the GFS shows that Grand Forks will be dealing with an air mass that is -2 sigma colder than normal. After familiarizing oneself with observations (satellite, surface obs, etc.) it would be a good idea to head over to see what the experts are saying at the Grand Forks NWS WFO.

Large-Scale Pattern:

The pattern looks to be amplified early in the period but then flattening out to become more zonal during our first week of forecasting for GFK according to the GFS 500-hPa geopotential height forecast. The main story early on will be how cold it will get with much lower than average temperatures expected. A few short waves passing either to the north or south of GFK may provide some scattered snow showers but there are no strong, organized systems on the horizon for our first week.


Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar (pretty good radar coverage in ND!), surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Grand Forks.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KGFK.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS. Here's a winter-specific SREF page just for fun.  
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Grand Forks, ND WFO forecast discussion for info on KGFK. These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
• http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php  

• The SBU-WRF run by Professor Colle's research group has Grand Forks in their 36-km domain and can be found here:
• http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, snow cover, and fog. Is there snow cover? Check out here!
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF, hi-res NAM) or compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF or for a zoomed-in national look try here. And for a winter-weather specific SREF page then check this out.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

Forget the spoons. Forget the knives. Grab your grandest forks for this point-forecast! Best of luck with forecasting for KGFK and let's go Team SBU!

City #9: Redding, CA (KRDD)

Say good-bye to the East Coast since we are now going to be moving on to City #9 of the year which is Redding, California (KRDD). Does anyone know where Redding, CA is? I sure don't because I have only been in California for half of a day at Death Valley National Park (#sheltered Long Islander). All the more reason to get aquainted with KRDD with this blog post! Anyway, we will be forecasting for Redding from 10-20 March for the 24-h period from 06-06 UTC which is 11-11 PM PDT and the forecasts are still due by 00 UTC which is now 8 PM EDT!!! Hopefully you noticed that the clocks changed (Spring ahead) otherwise you may have been having a rough week with showing up late to classes.

Source

Redding, CA is located in north-central California (NORCAL)  on the northern periphery of the Sacramento Valley essentially surrounded by mountains except to its south. The Klamath Mountains are to its northwest and the Cascades are to its east and northeast. With all that terrain and with the Pacific Ocean so close by, I'd start out every forecast by checking out the latest loop of water vapor imagery to pick out potential moisture plumes and systems off the coast. (Check out this loop for a 500 mb analysis overlaid on satellite. Or this one with NCEP-analyzed surface fronts!) For a focused look at the forecast moisture transport, check out this link for integrated water vapor transport from the GEFS (global ensemble forecast system) for out to 384 forecast hours. Time to stalk the airport!

KRDD is Redding Municipal Airport and is located to the southeast of the city center. It has a WMO ID of 72592 and an elevation of 153 m which is actually pretty low considering all of the surrounding terrain and that parts of the outskirts of Redding rise to about 800 m. The representative NWS WFO is Sacramento, CA and after looking at some satellite imagery I'd totally read up on what these expert forecasting for NORCAL have to say in their area forecast discussion (AFD).   



Given that we are forecasting for a site entrenched in terrain on the West Coast of the United States, I think it would be a good idea to review the concept of orographic precipitation. We all know that if air is sufficiently moist and is lifted that it reaches a point in which the air becomes saturated and the water vapor condenses into cloud. If that parcel keeps rising then some of that water can precipitate out. That's the simple idea about stable orographic flow over terrain that can cause precipitation on its windward slopes. The situation can be a bit more complex when you have preexisting synoptic features translating across areas of terrain; then you can have orographically-enhanced precipitation. And don't be fooled if the moisture is coming directly from the west and Redding lies within the shadow of the Coastal Mountains-- it may not be safe from precipitation for many reasons including that the Cascades are higher (can wring out more moisture) and perturbed flow can develop over the Coastal Mountains that can actually form a wave-like appearance and cause air to lift downstream and produce precipitation. It's a little bit long and you'll have to zoom-in, but a great guide to forecasting out west for these types of situations was put out by the Warning Decision Training Branch of NOAA and a pdf going through a whole bunch of orographic precip. goodies is found here.

Summarizing Thoughts & Large-Scale Pattern:

The pattern looks to be drying out just as we start to forecast for RDD. According to the 500 hPa heights of the GFS, a trough (that we are all very much paying attention to for its potential role in weather for us on the East Coast!) is moving out of the area and a ridge builds in its wake that remains and builds throughout our first full week of forecasting for Redding. Therefore, the forecast challenges for our first week of forecasting will be catching the temperature trends and getting those winds right. There may be some moisture to play with next week, but we'll have to wait and see.

In general-- I'd focus my particular attention to the large-scale synoptic pattern, with land falling mature cyclones and their associated moisture plumes being the most important thing to watch out for. I'd use the available hi-resolution models to get a better feel for wind patterns and diurnal temperature variations (see sections below for links).

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar (beware of beam blockage out west!), surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Redding.
• For forecasting for Redding, I'd look hemispherically or look at the Pacific specifically which can be done at the following links (Note: can only be done with global models for obvious reasons, i.e. domain boundaries):
•  GFS: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/npac.html
•  GFS: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?h500+/-168//
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KRDD.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS. Here's a winter-specific SREF page just for fun.  
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Sacramento, CA WFO forecast discussion for info on KRDD. These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
• http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php  

• The GFS-WRF run by the University of Washington has Redding in their 36-km domain and a list of all of the types of qpf products can be found here:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, snow cover, and fog.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KRDD!
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.
• The terrain around KRDD makes it a little complex to associate a specific wind direction with a specific temperature effect.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF, hi-res NAM) or compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)
• The GFS-WRF run by the University of Washington has Redding in their 36-km domain and a list of all of the types of qpf products can be found here:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html
• What does the WPC show? 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF or for a zoomed-in national look try here. And for a winter-weather specific SREF page then check this out.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

I don't know much about Redding except that a former boy band singer-turned solo artist Ashley Parker Angel of O-Town fame was born there. If you don't know who he is then A) I'm really old and B) you're better off.




I hope you're excited to forecast for this very different area of the country! Go Team SBU!

City #8: Baltimore, MD (KBWI)

Welcome back to forecasting for the CONUS again in the WxChallenge! I hope you enjoyed your foray into Alaskan forecasting and are happy to be back to forecasting for more recognizable latitudes. The next forecast city for the Spring semester is Baltimore, MD (KBWI). We will be forecasting for the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM EST) from 24 February - 6 March.

Baltimore is located near the northern edge of the Chesapeake Bay in north-central Maryland. It is a major port city because of its location on the bay but is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the Delmarva Peninsula which is very flat so doesn't act to impede air masses coming off the Atlantic given a strong enough easterly wind. The city varies in elevation from sea level in the inner harbor to about 150 m in the northwest suburbs, with the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains a good 80 km away to the northwest of the city.  Time to stalk the airport!



KBWI is located southwest of the city center a little less than 10 km from the Chesapeake Bay. KBWI's WMO ID is 72406. Be sure to check in with the local NWS WFO which is the Sterling, VA Office. A convenient quality of KBWI is that it is located in our timezone (EST) which minimizes conversions for us!

Large-scale Pattern: 
The forecast upper-level pattern according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting shows the growing amplitude of the longwave upper-level trough throughout the entire week with a few embedded shortwaves that could force some disturbances, especially the coastal development expected for Wednesday. The forecast temperatures should be well below normal given the cold air mass that is associated with that deep trough and has been highlighted by CPC's 6-10 day outlook. The outlook also calls for above average precipitation for around BWI and the entire East Coast because of the location of the trough just upstream of a semi-permanent baroclinic zone (continental air vs. Gulf Stream) that is perfect for activating the Atlantic storm track like we've seen plenty of evidence of this winter. To summarize, the large-scale pattern looks pretty good for cold and precipitation as I think we'll see as we start forecasting.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Baltimore.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KBWI.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS. Here's a winter-specific SREF page just for fun.  
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Sterling, VA WFO forecast discussion for info on BWI. These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
• http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. Should there be snow-cover then temperatures can potentially be a bit colder due to snow's reflective properties and low heat capacity.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KBWI!
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.
• An easterly wind direction should make BWI temperatures warmer given the proximity to the coast.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF, hi-res NAM) or compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)
• This forecast city is actually in our model domains for the SBU-WRF that is run twice daily. We don't have any time-series or soundings for BWI because we are narcissistic and centralizing it on Long Island but the cross section from B-B' should capture very near to BWI at the southwestern endpoint.
• What does the WPC show? 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here. And for a winter-weather specific SREF page then check this out.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

While you peruse the atmospheric data, be sure to play the Star Spangled Banner which was written in Baltimore by Francis Scott Key (see video below). It should be cool forecasting for BWI for the next couple weeks (pun intended)! Brrrr, best of luck and go Team SBU!!!

City #7: Fairbanks, AK (PAFA)

We are done forecasting for Atlanta and now focus our attention outside of the Continental United States (CONUS) for the first time since 2011! The second forecast city for the Spring semester and the seventh forecast city this year is Fairbanks, AK (PAFA). We will be forecasting for the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (9 PM - 9 PM AKST) from 10 February - 20 February. Two things to note here is that the airport code begins with a "P" not a "K" because it is located near the Pacific Ocean and Alaska has its own time zone and is 4 hours behind us.

Source.

Fairbanks, Alaska is found in central Alaska in the Tanana Valley. It is surrounded by various mountain ranges as you can see in the image to the right and is just 190 km from the Arctic Circle. It's well removed from The Deadliest Catch territory but perhaps it's near where one could strike it rich with some gold mining! That's enough publicity for The Discovery Channel; time to stalk the airport!

PAFA is Fairbanks International Airport and is located to the west of the city center along the Tanana River. PAFA's WMO ID is 70261. The closest topography is the Alaska Range to the south and the White Mountains to the Northeast . Be sure to check in with the local NWS WFO which is the Fairbanks, AK office. They are sort of their own little entity up there, with three Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Alaska (Juneau, Fairbanks and Anchorage) with a NWS region all to themselves-- Alaska Region Headquarters. Some of their website displays are a little bit different than what we are used to here within the Eastern Region of the NWS but they're chock full of information if you find their forecast discussion to be a bit on the short side.


View Larger Map

Forecasting for Alaska can be a bit tricky because it is outside of the CONUS and therefore experiencing a slightly different pattern, being just upstream. It may help to look at Northern Hemispheric analysis and forecast products to be able to get a sense of the more large-scale synoptic setup. Some Alaska-specific links are as follows:

• NCEP's Northern Hemispheric loop from GFS  
• NCEP's Ensemble Mean & Spread of GEFS (GFS Ensemble)
• NCEP/CMC's North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFs, Joint CMC-GFS Ensemble)
• NCEP's Alaska-only Hi-res NAM
• NCEP's Alaska-only NMM-Core WRF
• NCEP's Alaska-only ARW-Core WRF

The CPC  8-10 day outlook for temperatures and precipitation is looking to be below normal for both temperatures and precipitation. "Normal" temperatures for the month of February are 10F/-12F so we'll see how many negative numbers we have to input! Just looking at one deterministic model shows that where a ridge had been prevalent over AK, now a trough digs down during our first week of forecasting.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite (for Alaska option or click here for NH composite), radar (can't see much beyond Fairbanks), surface observations (AK-only), METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from the Alaska-specific links above). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Fairbanks.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for PAFA (select NAM-AK or GFS-NH).
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. See the Alaska-specific links above for links to the NAEFS and GEFS..
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics). Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times.
• Read the Fairbanks, AK WFO forecast discussion for info on PAFA. These are the experts for that location, after all!
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
• http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, fog and snowcover. Should there be snowcover then temperatures can potentially be a bit colder due to snow's reflective properties and low heat capacity. There will likely be snowcover and an Arctic cold surge during our time forecasting for PAFA so be prepared!
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers).  

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. 

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (found at the Alaska-specific links above).
• What does the WPC show? They only have Alaska forecast outlooks for the medium range (Day 4-7).
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT, for PAFA) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

Lasso up some sled dogs and get excited for forecasting for Fairbanks, AK! Or perhaps you'll want to paint a happy little cloud near a happy little tree like the late Bob Ross did after being inspired from living there. (If you're too young to know who Bob Ross is then I quit.) It should be absolutely frigid during the second and third week of February which should making for really cool forecasts (pun intended)! If you have any questions or comments feel free to comment on this post, email me or stop by my office (CH 121). Best of luck forecasting for PAFA and Go Team SBU!!!

Also, have some fun and submit your choice for the 10th forecast city by 14 February! I totally submitted "KISP", "KBOS" and "KNYC" because I'm wicked into our region.

City #6: Atlanta, GA (KATL)

Welcome back to forecasting for the WxChallenge! I hope you enjoyed your winter break and are excited to get back into the swing of things for this semester. The first forecast city for the Spring semester is Atlanta, GA (KATL). We will be forecasting for the 24-h period of 06-06 UTC (1 AM - 1 AM EST) from 27 January - 6 February.

Atlanta is located in northwestern Georgia. It is located in the foothills to the south of the Appalachian Mountains at an elevation of 320 m. The city is pretty unimpeded from Gulf air from the south or Atlantic moisture from the east, should a favorable wind direction set up to transport heat and moisture but it doesn't look like there will be much of that in our first week of forecasting. Time to stalk the airport!

 
View Larger Map 

KATL is Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport and is located to the southwest of the city center. KATL's WMO ID is 72219. The only topography around is about 100 km to the north. Be sure to check in with the local NWS WFO which is the Peachtree City office. A convenient quality of KATL is that it is located in our timezone (EST) to minimize conversions for us!


Large-scale Pattern: 
The forecast upper-level pattern according to the GFS for the start of our first week of forecasting for Atlanta shows a large-amplitude trough across most of the Eastern CONUS persisting throughout the entire week with a few shortwave impulses forcing some sensible weather. This first week would be a bad one to take climatological values for late January temperatures (50s/30s) given this trough inducing Arctic air to reach the city. The first day of forecasting should provide some challenge regarding precipitation amounts but at least we don't have to worry about precipitation type, just QPF. See the section on precipitation below for some useful resources.
 
Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:

• Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar, surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future. 
• Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Atlanta.
• Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KATL.
• How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
• Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS.  
• Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics).  Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times. 
• Read the Peachtree City, GA WFO forecast discussion for info on KATL. These are the experts for that location, after all! 
• Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
• http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
• http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php

Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):

• Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover and fog. Should there be snow-cover (even in Atlanta!) then temperatures can potentially be a bit colder due to snow's reflective properties and low heat capacity.
• Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages especially right at the start of our first week of forecasting for KATL!
• Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.

Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):

• NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
• Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes. 

  
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):

• Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF, hi-res NAM) or compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)
• What does the WPC show? 
• Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
• Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF (South Central option) or for a zoomed-in national look try here.)
• Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.

Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!

I hope that you are excited to begin forecasting for Atlanta, GA. The first forecast city of the Spring semester is always the city in which the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) Annual Meeting is held. The AMS Annual Meeting will be held from 2-6 February 2014 at the Georgia World Congress Center. A few graduate students and at least one undergraduate that I know of from SBU will be attending along with Professor Colle. If you aren't a Student Member of the AMS, I would highly recommend it as it provides great insight into the field at large as well as scholarship and networking opportunities. So if you want forecasting insight during the second week of forecasting, just pester those attending the conference! Best of luck forecasting for this cold period for Atlanta, GA. Go Team SBU!!!

WxChallenge: Spring 2014!

Welcome to the WxChallenge discussion site for members of the SBU team (and any esteemed guests, of course)! Most of you have at least one semester of participation in the WxChallenge forecasting competition under your belt and I hope you are ready for another exciting semester of testing your forecasting knowledge for sites across the country!

On this site you can find information on each forecast city as well as useful links and resources to help assist your forecasting process. Normally, a post specific to each new forecasting city will start off each forecasting period. Discussions of especially challenging or boring forecasts are encouraged and are done by commenting on any post.

The Challenge
The competition begins for the Spring semester on January 27, 2014 for Atlanta, GA (KATL). The full schedule for the semester is as follows:

City	Identifier	Dates
Atlanta, GA	KATL	January 27 - February 6
Fairbanks, AK	PAFA	February 10 - February 20
Baltimore, MD	KBWI	February 24 - March 6
Redding, CA	KRDD	March 10 - March 2
TBD via vote	?	March 24 - April 3

 Tourny- Sprinfield, MO    KSGF              April 7 - May 3

Source: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php

Forecasts are due at 00 UTC and are made for a period 06 UTC - 06 UTC. So until Daylight Savings Time begins, forecasts are due at 7:00 PM after which it will change to 8:00 PM. You forecast every Monday night - Thursday night and have Friday's off. After the normal cities are done we take a break for a week and play one mystery city that has yet to be determined and then all those who qualify will compete in the tournament city which this year is Springfield, MO.

Recall from last semester, we do get judged as a team (SUNY-Stony Brook) so please feel free to discuss the thinking behind your forecasts but you must keep your exact numbers to yourself.

For each forecast you must submit a high temperature (F), low temperature (F), maximum wind speed (kts) and precipitation amount (in). Note that the wind speed is sustained, not gusts, and the precipitation amount is the cumulative liquid precipitation- so don't put 12 inches if you think it will snow a foot!

That's about all of the important information I wanted to provide here. For more detailed info and guidelines on the scoring system please see the WxChallenge website. Motivational statement: first and second place forecasters for each category receive trophies for every city, not just overall or tournament winners. So there's plenty of opportunities for glory here! The tournament rules are a bit involved and I will explain them in more detail as we get closer to the end of the semester. Click here and scroll down until you reach "Tournament" if you wanted to read-up in advance.

Below are a few useful resources however everyone is encouraged to log onto the Metlab computers and plot model data using nmap2, analyze soundings with BUFKIT, etc. New this year is an online discussion board called MetScholars: Connecting Students in Meteorology. Through that you can find even more links to forecasting resources and a place for discussion with students from many other colleges and universities. It may serve as a great platform for learning from your peers (or the mistakes of your peers!).

Useful Links
Submit your forecasts: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php
Check out the WxChallenge site information and verification: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/schedule.php (click on the current forecast city's city link) 
MetScholars Discussion Topic: Forecasting

My favorite WxChallenge-specific sites:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~wxchallenge/
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/wxchallenge/
http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/weather/model_compare_wxc.php

Current Analyses
-Satellite-
Global Satellite (NRL)

Regional Satellite (RAP/UCAR) 
NASA GOES (ESO)
NOAA SSD Satellite Imagery 

Satellite (UW-Madison)
 

 -Surface-

Surface Obs (RAP/UCAR)
METAR (UWyo)

Surface Potential Temperature Map (UAlbany)

National Radar (NOAA)

Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
 

-Upper-levels-

Upper Air (NCEP)

Soundings (UWyoming)

-Tropical & Severe Wx-

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

CIMMS Tropical Cyclones (UWisc-Madison)

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
Mike Erickson's TC Track Page

 Forecasting Resources
WxForecaster

Twisterdata

PSU E-wall

NCEP Model Page 
NSSL WRF Page
University of Washington Site of Loops

MetScholars Forecasting Resources
MOS (Text)
MOS WxChallenge city-specific data (UAlbany)
Ensemble Data Links (Spaghetti plots, SREF, GEFS, etc.)

Archived Data

ESRL Interactive Plotting & Analysis
North American Historical Wx Maps (UWashington)

Radar and Satellite (UCAR)

SPC Storm Reports & Mesoanalyses

Monthly Climate Normals (NCDC)

Additional Sources (MetScholars) 

Please feel free to comment below with any questions or comments. Please let me know if you have any trouble logging on to submit your forecasts. Thanks for your enthusiasm and good luck-- let's go SBU!!!