Grand Forks, ND (KGFK) is in northeastern North Dakota right near the border of Minnesota. The city is found along the Red River (where it forks from the Red Lake River, and it forks grandly at that) and is forever remembered for the 1997 Red River Flood that thankfully wasn't responsible for any fatalities but was responsible for about $3.5 billion in damage. There's no topography to speak of so that saves some typing. Let's just jump straight to stalking the airport.
The airport is Grand Forks International Airport and is located to the west of the city center and the Red River seemingly surrounded by farm fields. The WMO ID is 72757. The average high temperature for March - April can vary from 30's - 50's F and the average low temperature is in the 30's - 40's F but just looking at the 850-hPa temperature standardized anomaly forecast from the GFS shows that Grand Forks will be dealing with an air mass that is -2 sigma colder than normal. After familiarizing oneself with observations (satellite, surface obs, etc.) it would be a good idea to head over to see what the experts are saying at the Grand Forks NWS WFO.
Large-Scale Pattern:
The pattern looks to be amplified early in the period but then flattening out to become more zonal during our first week of forecasting for GFK according to the GFS 500-hPa geopotential height forecast. The main story early on will be how cold it will get with much lower than average temperatures expected. A few short waves passing either to the north or south of GFK may provide some scattered snow showers but there are no strong, organized systems on the horizon for our first week.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting in General:
- Check out the current weather first via satellite, radar (pretty good radar coverage in ND!), surface observations, METAR, etc. You have to understand the present before you can look to the future.
- Get a feel for general pattern from NAM, GFS, etc. (available from here and here, for example). Identify the general pattern of low and high surface pressure systems and their progression, temperature advection at 850 mb, moisture at 700 mb, vorticity at 500 mb and the general jet structure at 300 mb. Make sure you are focusing your attention on Grand Forks.
- Look at forecast model soundings for the period for KGFK.
- How are the models evolving in time? Check out d(model)/dt plots like this one that focuses on the GFS.
- Ensembles are your friend. Here's a cool page for some spaghetti from the GEFS. Here's a winter-specific SREF page just for fun.
- Compare your idea for values with MOS (model output statistics). Keep in mind these are instantaneous output values and you can always have values above/below that between output times.
- Read the Grand Forks, ND WFO forecast discussion for info on KGFK. These are the experts for that location, after all!
- Other universities have great WxChallenge-specific pages:
- The SBU-WRF run by Professor Colle's research group has Grand Forks in their 36-km domain and can be found here:
Tips/Comments for Forecasting for High/Low temperature (Fahrenheit):
- Recall such basics as nighttime radiative cooling and daytime solar radiative heating, both of which are affected by cloud cover, snow cover, and fog. Is there snow cover? Check out here!
- Frontal passages can affect your temperature forecast. Pay attention to the forecast timing of such frontal passages.
- Given quiet synoptic players, the evening dew point can act as a rough guess for the nighttime low (some forecasters use this as a first guess when they think the model output statistics (MOS) is bonkers). Therefore the wind direction may be a good indicator of humidity which may affect the nighttime temperatures.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Wind Speed (knots):
- NWS outputs wind speed in mph so if you are comparing your forecast value to theirs keep that in mind. Otherwise the models output wind speed (WSP) in knots.
- Look through METAR or surface obs for wind direction and temperature changes.
Tips/Comments for Forecasting Precipitation (inches):
- Take a look at some higher-resolution models (e.g. WRF, hi-res NAM) or compare a whole bunch at once using a meteogram (ISU)
- What does the WPC show?
- Take a look at some GFS model-derived standardized anomalies of precipitable water (PWAT) to get a handle on any significant movement of the forecast of dry air or very moist air.
- Take a look at some ensemble data (e.g. SREF or for a zoomed-in national look try here. And for a winter-weather specific SREF page then check this out.)
- Most products you will be looking at will output the QPF in inches already so no conversion is necessary. Recall that we are forecasting for the liquid precipitation so if the forecast calls for snow, make sure you aren't forecasting 4 inches-- use the liquid equivalent.
Be sure to check out a previous post found here for a long list of great resources that you should check out! Most of them are also found on Dr. Colle's Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) group's website. Please feel free to comment below with any cool sites or tools that you've discovered from your experience!
Forget the spoons. Forget the knives. Grab your grandest forks for this point-forecast! Best of luck with forecasting for KGFK and let's go Team SBU!
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